기업의 생산성과 해외직접투자의 타이밍
Productivity and the Timing of Foreign Direct Investment
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초록
본 연구는 불확실성 하 해외직접투자의 시간적인 의사결정과 관련 해외투자에서 발생할 수 있는 기다림의 가치를 생산성 측면에서 분석하려는 시도이다. 본 연구는 해외직접투자에 걸리는 시간이 생산성이 중간 정도인 기업에서 가장 짧으며, 이 기업보다 생산성 수준이 높아지거나 낮아질수록 더 길어지는 비선형적인 이차함수 형태를 가질 것이라는 가설을 설정한다. 그리고 한국 제조업 기업들이 대중국 해외직접투자 허용 후 실제 투자까지 사용한 시간을 연구하는 Cox 비례위험 모형을 추정함으로써 이 가설을 실증적으로 검증한다. 실증분석 결과, 본 연구는 연구가설이 한국제조업의 대중국투자에 일반적으로 관찰되는 사실임을 알 수 있었다. 산업별 추정의 경우 네 개 추정산업 중 두 개 산업에서 제조업 전체에 대한 실증결과와 동일한 결과를 확인할 수 있었다.
Abstract
This study investigates the value of waiting that exists in the firm's decision-making on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the context of firm's productivity by applying a Cox(1972) proportional hazards model to Korean manufacturing firms' FDI data in China. The paper hypothesizes that firms with intermediate productivity level tend to realize their first investments earlier than the manufacturing firms with relatively high and low productivity levels. Empirical results show that the timing of FDI is a positive quadratic function of firm's productivity, suggesting that average productive firms lead FDI, followed by both more productive firms that delay their FDI to lower the probability of FDI failure and by less productive firms that don't have enough resources required to implement the investment. These results hold in two industries out of four industries in industry-wise regression.
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