무역자유화의 동태적 누적효과: 한국 제조업
Cumulative Effects of Trade Liberalization: The Case of Korean Manufacturing
2
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
무역자유화의 파급효과를 분석한 선행 연구의 대부분은 어떤 시점에 이루어진 무역자유화가 해당연도 또는 그 다음연도와 같은 특정시점의 경제성과(economic performance)에만 영향을 미치는 것처럼 암묵적으로 가정하기 때문에 본질적으로 정태분석의 한계를 벗어나지 못한다. 이러한 선행연구와는 달리 본 연구는 무역자유화가 경제성과에 지속적으로 영향을 미칠 수 있는 동태적 실증분석모형을 설정하여 무역자유화의 누적효과(cumulative effects)를 분석한다. 또한 무역자유화의 파급효과에 대한 실증분석에서 제기되는 내생성(endogeneity)의 문제를 통제하기 위해 수준방정식과 차분방정식을 동시에 이용하는 동태적 패널 데이터 분석방법인 시스템 일반화적률법(system GMM)을 적용한다. 본 연구는 1988-2005년 기간의 한국 제조업을 대상으로 무역자유화의 정태 효과 및 동태적 누적효과를 추정하였는데, 무역자유화의 파급효과는 상당 기간 동안 지속되고, 동태적 누적효과는 정태효과에 비해 훨씬 더 크게 나타났다.
Abstract
Since the previous studies on the effects of trade liberalization implicitly assume that trade liberalization affects economic performance only in any point in time, they inevitably are static. Static evaluations fail to account for cumulative dynamic effects of trade liberalization that affect continuously economic performance. This paper tries to fill this gap of the previous studies in this field, estimating cumulative effects of trade liberalization on economic performance by employing an dynamic version of empirical model. One of important empirical issue is controlling bias from endogeneity. To resolve this problem, this paper employes system GMM that uses lagged first-differences as instruments for level equations and lagged levels as instruments for first-differences equations. It improves upon cross-section estimators because it controls for the potential bias induced by the omission of industry-specific effects and the endogeneity of all regressors. This study investigates the effects of trade liberalization in Korean manufacturing for the period from 1988 to 2005 and finds that cumulative dynamic effects of trade liberalization are present and bigger than static effects.
참고문헌 (31)
- 한국산업의 생산성 분석, "산업연구원", 산업연구원, ~, pp.439호
- 안상훈, "시장구조와 생산성: 한국 제조업 미시자료의 분석을 중심으로", 금융경제연구, (234) (2005), 한국은행금융경제연구원
- 이시욱, "수입관세 인하가 기업 생산성에 미치는 효과 분석", 한국개발연구, 7(별호), pp.73~110 (2008), 한국개발연구원
- 이원기, "경제개방의 확대가 생산성에 미치는 영향", 조사통계월보, 57(3) (2003), 한국은행
- Amiti, M, "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia", American Economic Review, 97, pp.1611~1138 (2007)
- Service Offshoring, Productivity, and Employment: Evidence from the United States, "Amiti, M", IMF Working paper, 05~238 (2005)
- Arellano, M, "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Montecarlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations", Review of Economic Studies, 58, pp.277~297 (1991)
- Arellano, M, "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error Components Models", Journal of Econometrics, 68, pp.29~52 (1995)
- Baldwin, R.E, "Regional Economic Integration in Handbook of International Economics, Vol. III", pp.1597~1644 (1995), Elsevier, Amsterdam: North Holland
- Blundell, R, "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models", Journal of Econometrics, 87, pp.115~43 (1998)
- How Foreign Investment Affects Host countries, "Blomström, M", Policy Research Working Paper,, ~, pp.1745 (1996)
- Caves, R. E, "Export-led Growth and the New Economic History", The integration of the world economy 1850 - 1914, 1, pp.495~534 (1996)
- Coe, D, "North-South R&D Spillovers", Economic Journal, 107, pp.134~149 (1997)
- International Direct Investments patterns, "Dunning, J. H", The global race for foreign direct investment: Prospects for the future, 107~132 (1993)
- Harrison, A.E, "Productivity, imperfect competition and trade reform: theory and evidence", Journal of International Economics, 36, pp.53~74 (1994)
- Frankel, J, "Does Trade Cause Growth", American Economic Review, 89, pp.379~99 (1999)
- Frankel, J, "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117, pp.37~66 (2002)
- Goldberger, A, "A Course in Econometrics" (1991), Harvard University Press
- Grossman, G, "Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy" (1991), MIT. Press
- Grossman, G.M, "Protection for Sale", American Economic Review, 84, pp.833~850 (1994)
- Kim, E, "Trade liberalization and productivity growth in Korean manufacturing industries: price protection, market power, and scale efficiency", Journal of Development Economics, 62, pp.55~83 (2000)
- Krishna, P, "Trade liberalization, market discipline and productivity growth: new evidence from India", Journal of Development Economics, 56, pp.447~462 (1998)
- Trade and Growth: Import-Led or Export-Led? Evidence from Japan and Korea, "Lawrence, R. Z", NBER Working Paper, ~, pp.7264 (1999)
- Lee, J-W., "Capital Goods Imports and Long-Run Growth", Journal of Development Economics, 48, pp.91~110 (1995)
- Levine, R, "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions", American Economic Review, 82, pp.942~963 (1992)
- Levinsohn, J, "Testing the imports-as-market-discipline hypothesis", Journal of International Economics, 35, pp.1~22 (1993)
- Rodriguez, F, "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence in NBER Macro Annual 2000" (2001), National Bureau of Economic Research
- Smith, A, "Completing the internal market in the European Community: Some industry simulation", European Economic Review, 32, pp.1501~1525 (1988)
- Tybout, J., "The effects of trade reforms on scale and technical efficiency: new evidence from Chile", Journal of International Economics, 31, pp.231~251 (1991)
- Vamvakidis, A, "Regional Trade Agreements or Broad Liberalization: Which Path Leads to Faster Growth?", IMF Staff Papers, 46, pp.42~68 (1999)
- Wooldridge, J. M, "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data" (2001), The MIT Press