산업구조조정이 고용 및 성장에 미치는 영향
Effects of Industrial Restructuring on Employment and Growth
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본 논문에서는 산업구조조정과 관련하여 나타나는 산업구조의 변화가 한국경제의 고용및 성장에 미치는 영향을 탐구하였다. Lilien (1982)의 부문 이동가설에 의하면 산업구조의변화는 노동시장에서 마찰적 실업을 발생하고 실업을 증가시키는 주요 요인이다. 그런데마찰적 실업은 동시에 경기상황에 의해 영향을 받을 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 산업구조조정이 고용에 미치는 효과를 경기변동과의 의존성을 고려하여 살펴보았다. 그리고 산업구조조정이 GDP 증가에 긍정적이라고 보는 Kuznets 가설과 이에 대립되는 Baumol 효과를 분석함으로써 산업구조조정이 경제 성장에 미치는 영향에 대해서도 살펴보았다. 우리나라의경제활동조사, 사업체노동력조사 그리고 거시경제자료를 사용하여 실시한 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 산업구조의 변화가 실업을 증가시키는 단기적 효과가 있으며 경기 수축국면에서 구조조정의 효과가 더욱 크게 나타나서 우리나라의 경우에는 Lilien의 부문 이동가설이 실증적으로 유효한 것으로 판단되었다. 둘째, 산업구조조정은 구직과 구인(또는 실업과 빈 일자리)의 관계를 나타내는 베버리지 곡선을 이동시킴으로써 일자리 매칭의 효율성을 감소시키는 결과를 보였다. 특히, 경기변동에 따라 수축 국면에서 매칭 비효율성이더욱 크게 나타났다. 셋째, 산업구조의 변화가 GDP 성장에 미치는 중장기적 효과가 유의하게 나타났다. 산업구조조정과 함께 생산성이 높은 부문으로 자원의 재배치가 이루어지면서 성장을 제고시킴으로써 Kuznets 가설에 부합하는 결과를 얻었다.
Abstract
In this research, we explore the effects of changes in industrial structure due to industrial restructuring on employment and growth in the Korean economy. To that end, we first investigate the impact of industrial restructuring on employment through Lilien’s sectoral shift hypothesis, considering the dependence of industrial restructuring on business cycles. As a result of the analysis, we find that changes in the industrial structure have exerted a short-term effect of increasing unemployment, and that the effects of industrial restructuring are even greater during the economic downturn period. In light of these points, Lilien’s sectoral shift hypothesis seems to be valid in Korea. Next, we examine the effect of industrial restructuring on economic growth in Korea by analyzing which one, between the Kuznetz hypothesis and the Baumol effect, is dominant. Empirical results reveal that the mid- to long-term effect of industrial restructuring on GDP growth is significant, which is in accordance with the Kuznets hypothesis, where resource allocation along with industrial restructuring to sectors with high productivity spurs economic growth.
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