Robust Contract Conditions Under the Newly Introduced BTO-rs Scheme: Application to an Urban Railway Project
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Few studies have specifically focused on the uncertainty of demand forecasting despite the fact that uncertainty is the one of greatest risks for governments and private partners in PPP projects. This study presents a methodology for finding robust contract conditions considering uncertainty in travel demand forecasting in a PPP project. Through a case study of an urban railway PPP project in Korea, this study uncovered the risk of excessive government payments to private partners due to the uncertainty in contracted forecast ridership levels. The results allow the suggestion that robust contract conditions could reduce the expected total level of government payments and lower user fees while maintaining profitability of the project. This study offers a framework that assists contract negotiators and gives them more information regarding financial risks and vulnerabilities and helps them to quantify the likelihood of these vulnerabilities coming into play during PPP projects.
Abstract
Few studies have specifically focused on the uncertainty of demand forecasting despite the fact that uncertainty is the one of greatest risks for governments and private partners in PPP projects. This study presents a methodology for finding robust contract conditions considering uncertainty in travel demand forecasting in a PPP project. Through a case study of an urban railway PPP project in Korea, this study uncovered the risk of excessive government payments to private partners due to the uncertainty in contracted forecast ridership levels. The results allow the suggestion that robust contract conditions could reduce the expected total level of government payments and lower user fees while maintaining profitability of the project. This study offers a framework that assists contract negotiators and gives them more information regarding financial risks and vulnerabilities and helps them to quantify the likelihood of these vulnerabilities coming into play during PPP projects.
참고문헌 (17)
- Bowe, M., "Project evaluation in the presence of multiple embedded real options: evidence from the Taiwan High-Speed Rail Project", Journal of Asian Economics, 15, pp.71~98 (2004)
- Chen, A., "Mean-variance model for the build-operate-transfer scheme under demand uncertainty", Transport Res Rec, 1857(1), pp.93~101 (2003)
- Feng, Z., "Subsidizing and pricing private toll roads with non-contractible service quality: a relational contract approach", Transport. Res. Part B : Methodological, 91, pp.466~491 (2016)
- Hadka, D., "An Open Source Framework for Manyobjective Robust Decision Making", Environmental Modelling & Software, 74, pp.114~129 (2015)
- Herman, J. D., "How Should Robustness Be Defined for Water Systems Planning Under Change?", Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 141(10) (2015)
- Ho, S. H., "A fuzzy real option approach for investment project valuation", Expert Systems with Applications, 38(12), pp.15296~15302 (2011)
- Kasprzyk, J. R., "Many objective robust decision making for complex environmental systems undergoing change", Environ. Modell. Software, 42, pp.55~71 (2013)
- Valuing the Risks Created by Road Transport Demand Forecasting in PPP Project, "Kim, K. S.", Korea Development Institute, ~, pp.Policy Study 2012-17 (2012)
- Decision Making in Deep Uncertainty: Focusing on Transport Planning and Feasibility Studies, "Kim, K. S.", KDI, ~, pp.Policy Study 2017-17 (2017)
- A Study on the BTO-rs Contract Conditions under the Uncertainty of Operation Revenue, "Kim, K. S.", KDI, ~, pp.Working Paper 2019-02 (2019)
- Lempert, R. J., "Managing the Risk of Uncertain Thresholds Responses : Comparison of Robust, Optimum, and Precautionary Approaches", Risk Analysis, 27, pp.1009~1026 (2007)
- Marchau, V. A. M., "Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty, from theory to practice" (2019), Springer
- Martin, B., "Financial Calculus: An introduction to Derivate Pricing" (1996), Cambridge University Press
- Tan, Z, "Flexible build-operate-transfer contracts for road franchising under demand uncertainty", Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 46(10), pp.1419~1439 (2012)
- Trigeorgis, L., "Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation" (1996), MIT Press
- Yang, H., "Highway pricing and capacity choice in a road network under a build-operate-transfer scheme", Transport. Res. Part A : Pol. Pract, 34(3), pp.207~222 (2000)
- Zhang, Y., "The effects of concession period structures on BOT road contracts", Transport. Res. Part A : Pol. Pract, 107, pp.106~125 (2018)