Who’s Hit Hardest? The Persistence of the Employment Shock by the COVID-19 Crisis
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The persistence of the employment shock by COVID-19 has various policy implications during the pandemic and beyond it. After evaluating the impact of the health crisis at the individual level, this study decomposes employment losses into persistent and transitory components using the observed timing of the three major outbreaks and subsequent lulls. The estimation results show that while face-to-face services were undoubtedly hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis, the sectoral shock was less persistent for temporary jobs and self-employment. Permanent jobs in the hard-hit sector showed increasingly large persistent losses through the recurring crises, indicating gradual changes in employer responses. The persistent job losses were concentrated on young and older workers in career transitions, whose losses are likely to have long-term effects. These results suggest that targeted measures to mitigate the persistent effects of the employment shock should take priority during the recovery process.
Abstract
The persistence of the employment shock by COVID-19 has various policy implications during the pandemic and beyond it. After evaluating the impact of the health crisis at the individual level, this study decomposes employment losses into persistent and transitory components using the observed timing of the three major outbreaks and subsequent lulls. The estimation results show that while face-to-face services were undoubtedly hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis, the sectoral shock was less persistent for temporary jobs and self-employment. Permanent jobs in the hard-hit sector showed increasingly large persistent losses through the recurring crises, indicating gradual changes in employer responses. The persistent job losses were concentrated on young and older workers in career transitions, whose losses are likely to have long-term effects. These results suggest that targeted measures to mitigate the persistent effects of the employment shock should take priority during the recovery process.
참고문헌 (32)
- The Gendered Impact of the COVID-19 Recession on the US Labor Market, "Albanesi, Stefania", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.Working Paper 28505 (2021)
- This Time It’s Different: The Role of Women’s Employment in a Pandemic Recession, "Alon, Titan", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.Working Paper 27660 (2020)
- The First Weeks of the Coronavirus Crisis: Who Got Hit, When and Why? Evidence from Norway, "Alstadsæter, Annette", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.Working Paper 27131 (2020)
- Amior, Michael, "The Persistence of Local Joblessness", American Economic Review, 108(7), pp.1942~1970 (2018)
- Aum, Sangmin, "Inequality of Fear and SelfQuarantine: Is There a Trade-Off between GDP and Public Health?", Journal of Public Economics, 194, pp.1043~1054 (2021)
- Aum, Sangmin, "COVID-19 doesn’t need lockdowns to destroy jobs: The effect of local outbreaks in Korea", Labour Economics (2021)
- Barth, Erling, "Weathering the Great Recession: Variation in Employment Responses, by Establishments and Countries", RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, 3(3), pp.50~69 (2017)
- Measuring the Labor Market at the Onset of the COVID-19 crisis, "Bartik, Alexander W", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.Working Paper 27613 (2020)
- Bui, Truc Thi Mai, "Early Evidence on the Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the Recession on Older Workers", Public Policy & Aging Report, 30(4), pp.154~159 (2020)
- The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession, "Cajner, Tomaz", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.Working Paper 27159 (2020)
- Corporate Hiring Under COVID-19: Labor Market Concentration, Downskilling, and Income Inequality, "Campello, Murillo", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.Working Paper 27208 (2020)
- Chan, Sewin, "Job Loss and Employment Patterns of Older Workers", Journal of Labor Economics, 19(2), pp.484~521 (2001)
- Back to Business and (Re)employing Workers? Labor Market Activity During State COVID-19 Reopenings, "Cheng, Wei", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.Working Paper 27419 (2020)
- The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data, "Chetty, Raj", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.Working Paper 27431 (2020)
- Costa Dias, Monica, "The Challenges for Labour Market Policy during the Covid-19 Pandemic", Fiscal Studies, 41(2), pp.371~382 (2020)
- Davis, Steven J., "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2011, pp.1~72 (2011)
- Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics during the COVID-19 Recession, "Gallant, Jessica", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.Working Paper 27924 (2020)
- Haltiwanger, John C, "Cyclical Job Ladders by Firm Size and Firm Wage", American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 10(2), pp.52~85 (2018)
- Joseph Han, "Long-Term Effects of Labour Market Entry Conditions: The Case of Korea", Global Economic Review, 47(4), pp.434~463 (2018), 동서문제연구원
- Han, Joseph, "The Employment Situation of Youth and Policy Suggestions", KDI Feature Article, ~ (2020)
- Jacobson, Louis S, "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers", The American Economic Review, 83(4), pp.685~709 (1993)
- Jeong, Daehee, "Analysis on the Recent Employment Growth and Outlook for 2018", KDI Feature Article, ~ (2017)
- Kahn, Lisa B, "The Long-Term Labor Market Consequences of Graduating from College in a Bad Economy", Labour Economics, 17(2), pp.303~316 (2010)
- The Impact of COVID-19 on Small Business Employment and Hours: Real-Time Estimates with Homebase Data, "Kurmann, André", ESG UQÀM, Département des sciences économiques, École des sciences de la gestion, Université du Québec à Montréal, ~ (2020)
- Pandemic and Employment: Evidence from COVID-19 in South Korea, "Lee, Jongkwan", ~ (2021)
- Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing Policies?, "Mongey, Simon", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.Working Paper 27085 (2020)
- Determinants of Disparities in COVID-19 Job Losses, "Montenovo, Laura", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.Working Paper 27132 (2020)
- Oreopoulos, Philip, "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession", American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4(1), pp.1~29 (2012)
- Russell, Lauren, "The Effect of Mandatory Child Care Center Closures on Women’s Labor Market Outcomes during the COVID-19 Pandemic", Covid Economics, 62(18), pp.124~154 (2020)
- Schwandt, Hannes, "Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets", Journal of Labor Economics, 37(S1), pp.S161~S198 (2019)
- Sevilla, Almudena, "Baby Steps: The Gender Division of Childcare during the Covid-19 Pandemic", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(Supplement_1), pp.S169~S186 (2020)
- Stevens, Ann Huff, "Persistent Effects of Job Displacement: The Importance of Multiple Job Losses", Journal of Labor Economics, 15(1, Part 1), pp.165~188 (1997)