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Dynamics of Business Cycles in Korea: The Role of External Shocks

김성현|안형도
한국개발연구원 (Korea Development Institute)|2005.06|KDI Journal of Economic Policy|제27권 제1호|pp. 157-183

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참고문헌

주제분류경제학

초록

본 논문은 소규모 개방경제 모델을 이용하여 여러 가지 실물부문의 충격이 한국경제의 주요 거시변수에 미치는 영향을 동태 시뮬레이션 방법을 이용하여 분석하였다. 보다 현실적인 실물경제를 반영하기 위하여 기존의 경기변동 모델에 우리 경제의 특징적인 요소 몇 가지를 더하였다. 예를 들어, 수출재, 수입재 및 비교역재가 있는 재화시장과 채권시장을 통한 국제간 자본이동이 가능한 모델을 도입하였다. 특히 본 논문에서는 생산성 충격, 정부지출충격 등의 국내 내부의 충격요인과 외부 금리 및 교역조건충격 등의 외부 충격요인의 상대적인 역할을 비교하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과에 의하면, 교역조건의 개선은 투자, 생산 및 소비를 늘리고, 국제금리 인하는 국내 투자에 상당한 정도의 긍정적인 효과가 있는 것으로 나타난다. 결론적으로, 본 논문은 우리 경제의 경기변동 정도가 아직도 외부충격에 의해 큰 영향을 받는다는 것을 보여준다.

Abstract

Using a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we investigate the dynamic effects of a variety of shocks to a small open economy. In particular, we calibrate the model to match the main characteristics of business cycles in Korea and analyze the effects of external shocks: the terms of trade and world real interest rate shocks. Business cycles in Korea more closely follow those of the G7 countries rather than Asian countries. The simulation results suggest that an improvement in the terms of trade has positive impact on investment, output and consumption, while a decrease in the world interest rate has a significant and positive effect on investment. This paper concludes that external shocks significantly influence business cycle fluctuations in Korea.

참고문헌 (40)

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