2008년 글로벌금융위기의 법정책적 시사점
What Can Be Learned From 2008 Global Financial Crisis: From the Perspective of Law and Policy
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글로벌금융시장에서 큰 비중을 차지하고 있는 샤도우뱅킹(shadow banking)의 과도한 레버리지를 동반한 투기적 영업 관행이 2008년 미국발 글로벌금융위기의 주요 원인으로 지목되고 있다. 미국은 향후 제2의 금융위기를 막기 위해 도드-프랭크법을 제정하였으나, 동 법룔의 실효성은 아직 불확실하다. 우리나라 금융산업 환경이 미국의 그 것과 같지 않으므로 도드-프랭크법이 국내 금융규제법·정책에 주는 시사점은 어느 정도 제한적일 것이다. 다만 1990년대 후반부터 2008년 글로벌금융위기가 일어난 이후 2010년 현재까지도 정부와 금융계는 미국식 샤도우뱅킹과 금융혁신 등을 지속적으로 추구해오고 있기 때문에, 국내적으로 구조적 금융위기를 촉발시킬 수 있는 요인이 없는지 점검해볼 필요는 있다. 이에 더하여 금융수학모델의 ‘건전성’ 문제를 금융건전성 관리 차원에서 제도적으로 다룰 필요도 있다. 한편 글로벌금융위기 발생시 외환위기에 취약한 경제구조를 갖고 있는 개도국의 경우 IMF 개혁 및 거시경제정책 공조 등에서 얻을 수 있는 이익이 크기 때문에, 국제사회에서 이의 제도적 보장을 지속적으로 주장할 필요가 있다. 금융위기를 최대한 예방할 수 있는 가장 간단하고 효과적인 방안은 레버리지를 이용한 투기를 금지시키는 것이지만, 이의 정치적 실현 가능성은 대단히 낮아 보인다. 금융 시스템 리스크 실현을 예방하기 위한 적정 금융규제 수준이 무엇인지는 여전히 불분명하며, 이에 대한 지속적인 논의와 연구가 필요하다.
Abstract
There is little doubt that excessive leverage in shadow banking is a major cause of 2008 global financial crisis. Although the U.S. government enacted the Dodd-Frank Act to deal with financial systemic risk, it is uncertain whether the Act is able to prevent the next financial crisis. May be there is not much implication of the Act for Korea because two countries has different financial markets and different regulatory systems each other. But, on the other hand, it should be noted that both Korean government and financial industry as well has strongly pursued the U.S. style shadow banking system and financial innovation since 1990s. In this sense, financial regulatory authority needs to check shadow banking system in Korea. If it is found that shadow banking in Korea is exposed to too much risk, it should be regulated. It seems that the most simple and effective policy to eliminate unstability of financial market is to prohibit speculative finance with excessive leverage. But it would be hard to implement this kind of regulation because of financial industry and market-oriented conservatives’ political opposition.
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