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경기침체는 건강에 이로운가? 1991년~2009년 한국의 실업률과 사망률

Are Recessions Good for Your Health? Unemployment and Mortality Rates in South Korea, 1991∼2009

김태훈|이철희
한국경제의 분석패널 (Panel for Korean Economic Analysis)|2011.12|한국경제의 분석 (Journal of Korean Economic Analysis)|제17권 제3호|pp. 131-192

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참고문헌

키워드

스트레스경기변동Stress음주흡연SmokingHealth사망건강Death실업UnemploymentBusiness Cycle근로환경환경오염PollutionAlcohol ConsumptionWork Condition
주제분류경제학

초록

이 연구는 1991년~2009년 기간에 대한 광역시도별 자료를 이용하여 우리나라의 경기변동과 사망률 간의 관계를 분석하였다. 미국의 주별 자료나 OECD 국가별 자료에 기초한 선행연구들이 발견한 바와 같이 한국에서도 실업률이 증가할 때 사망률이 감소하는 현상이 발견되었다. 그러나 실업률과 사망률 간의 관계가 선형으로 추정된 미국의 경우와는 달리 완전고용에 가까워질수록 실업률이 사망률에 미치는 효과가 더 강해지는 패턴이 발견되었다. 또한 실업률이 사망률에 미치는 효과의 크기도 미국에 비해 훨씬 더 큰 것으로 추정되었다. 연령별․사망원인별로 실업률과 사망률의 관계를 분석한 결과는 경기변동이 환경오염과 같은 외부효과를 통해서 건강에 영향을 미쳤을 가능성을 시사한다. 그리고 중년인구의 경우 경기호황이 일과 관련된 스트레스를 강화하고, 음주, 흡연, 불건전한 식생활 등 건강에 부정적인 행동을 증가시켰을 가능성도 제기된다. 경기호황기에 대기 및 수질오염 물질의 배출량이 늘어나고 흡연 및 음주가 증가했다는 사실은 이러한 추측을 지지한다.

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between business cycle and death rates in Korea based on province-level data from 1991 to 2009. Similar to previous studies based on the United States(US) state-level data and OECD cross-country data, it turns out that the mortality rates in Korea are negatively related to the aggregate unemployment rate. However, unlike the US cases in which a linear relationship between the unemployment and mortality rates has been established, the magnitude of the effect of the unemployment rate on health increases in Korea as the economy comes closer to a full employment. It is also revealed that the mortality rates are more strongly influenced by business cycle in Korean than in the US. Results of analyzing age- and cause-specific death rates suggest that the link between the unemployment rate and health might be mediated by some external effects of busi- ness cycle, such as pollutions. For middle-aged individuals, in addition, it is possible that an economic boom increase their work-related stress and unhealthy behaviors, such as drinking and smoking. These explanations are consistent with the some circumstantial evidence that emissions of air and water pollutants as well as alcohol consumptions and smoking increase during economic booms in Korea.

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