자살의 계절성과 경기반응
The seasonality and response to the business cycle of suicides
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초록
우리나라 자살통계 장기시계열의 변동성은 일반 시계열의 특성과 마찬가지로 추세와 계절성, 그리고 경기변동성을 내포하고 있다. 본 연구는 이미 많은 연구를 통해 식별되어 온 자살 추세의 원인을 밝히려는 목적보다는 우리나라 자살통계 시계열의 추세와 계절성을 분석한 후, 추세와 계절성이 통제된 상태에서 자살이 경기변동에 의해 어떻게 영향을 받아 왔는지를 분석한다. 우리나라의 자살은 분석기간 (1995:01-2012:12)인 지난 17년 동안 장기적으로 추세적인 증가와 함께 변동성 측면에서 봄철에 정점에 달하였다가 겨울철에 최하점에 도달하는 계절적 리듬을 반복해 왔다. 또한 자살은 경기변동과 밀접한 관련을 맺고 있는 것으로 나타났는데, 경기하강 국면에 시차를 두고 자살자수가 증가하는 현상이 관찰되었으며, 그 충격은 1년 이상 소멸되지 않는 ‘지연형 반응’ (delayed response)으로 분석되었다. 따라서 자살의 계절적 리듬의 고리를 끊어내기 위해서는 특히 자살이 급증하는 시기인 3월부터 최고조에 달하는 5월 전후에 자살예방 노력이 집중될 필요가 있다. 자살의 경기대응 수단 강구는 즉시 이루어져야 하며 또한 지속되어야 한다. 경기하강이 관측되면 늦어도 3개월 이내에 자살위험군을 식별하여 자살을 예방하기 위한 신속한 정책 대응방안의 준비가 필요하다.
Abstract
This study aims at analyzing the seasonal variations of suicide in Korea and the effect of business cycle on the suicide during the period of Jan. 1995 – Dec. 2012. Variations of suicide in Korea suggest an obvious seasonal pattern for both male and female: a distinct annual rhythm with the peak in Spring the trough in Winter. Previous studies on the business cycle and suicide reported mixed findings. Some show a negative link between economic prosperity and suicide trends over time, while others find mixed conditional relations depending on individual attributes and time period researched. Some researches also find no relationship between business cycle and suicide. In this research, after controlling for seasonality and time trends of suicide data, a ‘vector autoregression’(VAR) model is used to analyze the business cycle effects of Korean suicides. The resulting impulse response function analysis associated with a VAR model shows that the business cycle could be a predictor of suicide trends: otherthings being equal, the number of suicide increases during the economic recession and decreases when the economic situation is relieved. In particular, the economic shock represents ‘delayed response’ in suicide. Recognizing the fact that the economic recession is related to suicide potential, an appropriate preventive remedy to suicide has to be prepared.
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