국가재정운용계획에 대한 재정 지속가능성 분석–Fanchart와 S1지표를 중심으로

Abstract

This paper analyzes the fiscal sustainability of the fiscal authorities' policy targets by applying the Fanchart and S1 indicator, which are used in international organizations, to Korea's medium-term fiscal management plan, the National Fiscal Management Plan(NFMP). Specifically, to analyze the volatility of the debt-to-GDP target set in the NFMP and the size of the underlying fiscal balance adjustment to reach the target level of the national debt within a certain period of time, we calculate the debt fanchart generated by the book boostrapping method over the forecast period of the NFMP and the S1 indicator, which is the adjustment to the underlying fiscal balance required to achieve the national debt level. The analysis shows that the gap between the 95% and 5% debt fancharts increased sharply after the pandemic, indicating heightened uncertainty about the debt projections and a decrease in fiscal stability starting from the initial policy planning phase, as the proposed debt level in the strategy deviated from the debt fanchart. The S1 indicator also deteriorated sharply during the pandemic, rising above 3% and exceeding the 2.5% threshold for high-risk EU countries. Notably, the deterioration in S1 indicator is not due to optimistic setting of the debt level, but rather to the extent that the actual fiscal behavior (IBP), including the recent sharp increase in the primary fiscal deficit, has contributed to the deterioration in S1 indicator.