심층신경망 모형을 활용한 대중교통 이용자의 환승시간 추정에 관한 연구
A study on Estimating the Transfer Time of Transit Users Using Deep Neural Network Models
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초록
환승시간은 대중교통계획 및 정책 수립에 있어서 중요한 요소이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 교통카드 이용자료를 활용하여 대중교통 이용자의 환승시간 영향요인을 규명하고, 딥러닝 기법인 심층신경망 모형을 이용한 환승시간을 추정하였으며 이를 전통적인 회귀모형과 비교 분석하였다. 먼저 환승시간 영향요인의 경우, 주변 버스의 배차간격과 버스 정류장까지의 거리가버스 환승시간에 양의 영향을 주었으며, 버스 노선수는 반대로 음의 영향을 주었다. 또한 지하철역이 속해있는 자치구에 따라서도 환승시간에 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 도출된 환승시간 영향요인을 통해 딥러닝 모형을 구축하고 성능을 비교한 결과, 회귀모형보다 딥러닝 모형의 성능이 보다 우수하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 지역별 환승허용시간의 차등 적용 등 대중교통환승정책의 기초 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.
Abstract
The transfer time is an important factor in establishing public transportation planning and policy. Therefore, in this study, the influencing factors of the transfer time for transit users were identified using smart card data, and the estimation results for the transfer time using the deep learning method such as deep neural network models were compared with traditional regression models. First, the intervals and the distance to the bus stop had positive effects on the subway-to-bus transfer time, and the number of bus routes had a negative effect. This also showed that the transfer time is affected by the area in which the subway station exists. Based on the influencing factors of the transfer time, the deep learning models were developed and their estimation results were compared with the regression model. For model performance, the deep learning models were better than those of the regression models. These results can be used as basic data for transfer policies such as the differential application of transit allowance times according to region.
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