어린이 보호구역 개선에 따른 교통안전 효과 추정: 대전광역시를 대상으로
Estimation of Traffic Safety Effects according to Improvement of School Zones: Focused on Daejeon Metropolitan City
2
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구는 특정 강력범죄 가중처벌 등에 관한 법률 제5조 제13항 및 도로교통법 제12조 (이하 민식이법) 개정 전·후 어린이 보호구역 내 교통사고 발생 및 심각도의 변화를 비교하고, 어린이 보호구역 개선이 교통사고 예방에 미친 영향을 분석하는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 연구 대상 지역은 민식이법 시행 이후 어린이 보호구역 개선과 도로 시설 정비 사업이 진행된 대전광역시로 선정하였으며, 인과 관계를 통한 효과를 정확히 추정하기 위해 이중차분법(Difference-in-differences, DID) 기반 성향점수 매칭 (Propensity Score Matching, PSM)을 사용한비교 분석을 수행하였다. 이를 통해, 어린이 보호구역 설치 및 미설치 구역 간 비교 집단을 구성하고, 회귀분석을 사용하여 교통사고 및 사고 심각도 변화의 차이를 분석함으로써 민식이법과 관련된 어린이 보호구역 개선의 정량적 효과를 파악하였다. 분석 결과, 민식이법 이후 어린이 보호구역 개선이 교통사고 발생과 사고 심각도를 유의미하게 감소시켰음을 확인하였다. 본연구는 민식이법 시행에 따른 어린이 보호구역 개선의 정책적 효과를 정량적으로 평가하였다는 점에서 의의가 있으며, 이는 향후 교통안전과 관련된 정책 수립에 중요한 기초 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.
Abstract
This study is significant because it quantitatively evaluated the effect of school zones, and is expected to provide an important basis for future traffic safety policies. This study compared the changes in the occurrence and severity of traffic accidents in school zones before and after the enforcement of Article 5(13) of the Act on the Aggravated Punishment of Specific Violent Crimes and Article 12 of the Road Traffic Act and analyzed the effect of school zones on traffic accident prevention. The study area selected was Daejeon Metropolitan City, where school zone improvement and road facility maintenance projects have been implemented. This study used propensity score matching (PSM) based on difference-in-differences (DID) to estimate the causal effects accurately. A comparison group was created between districts with and without school zones. In addition, the effect of school zones related to law enforcement was identified by analyzing the differences in the changes in traffic accidents and accident severity using regression analysis. These results showed that the school zone improvement significantly reduced the occurrence and severity of traffic accidents. This study is significant because it quantitatively evaluated the effect of school zones and is expected to provide an essential basis for future traffic safety policies.
참고문헌 (29)
- Benedetto, U., "Statistical primer : Propensity score matching and its alternatives", European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, 53(6), pp.1112~1117 (2018)
- Effectiveness Analysis and Countermeasures for Traffic Safety Policy, "Ha, T. J.", ~ (2005)
- Han, S. J., "The role of traffic safety experts according to the revision of the Traffic Safety Act", Transportation Technology and Policy, 2(2), pp.181~191 (2005)
- Hauer, E., "Observational Before-After Studies in Road Safety: Estimating the Effect of Highway and Traffic Engineering Measures on Road Safety" (1997), Pergamon Press, Elsevier Science Ltd
- Hauer, E., "Estimating safety by the empirical Bayes method: A tutorial", Transportation Research Record, 1784(1), pp.126~131 (2002)
- Hess, S., "Analysis of the effects of speed limit enforcement cameras: Differentiation by road type and catchment area", Transportation Research Record, 1865(1), pp.28~34 (2004)
- Ju, S. J., "A study on safety improvement of child protected zone", The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology, 6(4), pp.139~147 (2020)
- Jung, D. Y., "An evaluation of the crash eduction effects of school zone improvement projects", Seoul Studies, 9(1), pp.1~13 (2008)
- Kang, D. S., "Effects of traffic islands on traffic accidents reduction", Journal of Korea Society of Transportation, 28(2), pp.21~32 (2010)
- Kang, J. K., "A study on the impact of urban expressway traffic flow control strategies on traffic safety", Journal of Korea Society of Transportation, 14(2), pp.223~237 (1996)
- Kang, J. K., "Analysis of the mechanism of automated speed enforcement systems on traffic safety", Journal of Korea Society of Transportation, 17(1), pp.187~196 (1999)
- Kim, M. K., "Red light camera system installation on the effects analysis", Korea Society of Transportation, pp.159~166 (2010)
- Lee, D. M., "Analysis of effects from traffic safety improvement on roadways using C-G Method", Journal of Korea Society of Transportation, 28(3), pp.31~40 (2011)
- Lee, H. W., "An analysis of effects of travel speed using the safety facilities in the school zones", Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems, 11(3), pp.124~132 (2012)
- Li, H., "Heterogeneous treatment effects of speed cameras on road safety", Accident Analysis & Prevention, 97, pp.153~161 (2016)
- Li, H., "The impact of speed cameras on road accidents : An application of propensity score matching methods", Accident Analysis & Prevention, 60, pp.148~157 (2013)
- Li, H., "A causal analysis of time-varying speed camera safety effects based on the propensity score method", Journal of Safety Research, 75, pp.119~127 (2020)
- Myeong, M. H., "The impact of traffic enforcements on reducing traffic accidents", Journal of Korea Planning Association, 38(7), pp.109~117 (2003)
- Park, J. Y., "The characteristics of vehicle speed violation in school zones", International Journal of Highway Engineering, 12(2), pp.63~69 (2010)
- Park, J., "Development of adjustment functions to assess combined safety effects of multiple treatments on rural two-lane roadways", Accident Analysis &Prevention, 75, pp.310~319 (2015)
- Park, S. N., "Accidents involving children in school zones study to identify the key influencing factors", International Journal of Highway Engineering, 19(2), pp.167~174 (2017)
- "Road Traffic Act" (2024)[URL]
- "Road Traffic Act" (2024)[URL]
- Sasidharan, L., "Application of propensity scores and potential outcomes to estimate effectiveness of traffic safety countermeasures : Exploratory analysis using intersection lighting data", Accident Analysis & Prevention, 50, pp.539~553 (2013)
- Shim, J., "Evaluation of section speed enforcement system using empirical Bayes approach and turning point analysis", Journal of Advanced Transportation, pp.1~11 (2020)
- Son, S. O., "Assessing the safety effects of reduction of speed limit on urban roads", Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, 37(6), pp.514~524 (2019)
- Thoemmes, F. J., "A systematic review of propensity score methods in the social sciences", Multivariate Behavioral Research, 46(1), pp.90~118 (2011)
- Wood, J. S., "Comparison of safety effect estimates obtained from empirical Bayes before-after study, propensity scores-potential outcomes framework, and regression model with cross-sectional data", Accident Analysis & Prevention, 75, pp.144~154 (2015)
- Yeo, J., "Effects of speed humps on vehicle speed and pedestrian crashes in South Korea", Journal of Safety Research, 75, pp.78~86 (2020)