한반도 군비통제의 방향과 과제
Arms Control in the Korean Peninsula: Prospects and Options
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Abstract
Arms Control in the Korean Peninsula is one of the toughest strategic challenges of the Republic of Korea. The ROK Government has been alienated in the international efforts for the settlement of North Korean nuclear issue and lost control of the conventional arms control negotiations with North Korea. Theoretically, arms race is usually stimulated not only by the action-reaction factors but also by what is called ‘autism’ of individual state-actors. Chances can be found in how to control the stimulants of arms race. Dilemmas South Korea faces in terms of arm control are asymmetries in threat perception, strategy and definition of situation; abrupt shifts in U. S. global strategy after ‘September 11’ and ensuing status change of the U. S. Forces in Korea(USFK); and what North Korea has taken as policy options like ‘Military First Policy’, ‘Strong and Prosperous State Theory’ and ‘Simultaneous Development of Military and Economy’. South Koreans have to find a way out from mechanical escalation of arms race. Reduction of tension, confidence building in political and military field and transparency in government policy are to be recommended. But autistic factors can hardly be controlled. One of the desirable ways to solve North Korean autism is to help North Koreans convert their industry from military-related production to market economy. It goes without saying that North Korean spontaneity is needed in the conversion process. In addition, the ROK Government has to seek close cooperations with neighbor countries, especially the United States and demand North Korean refraining from adventurism regarding USKF. In conclusion, South Korea has to take a bold and comprehensive engagement policy measures based on its economic capabilities.
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