Forecasting Substitution and Competition among Previous and New products using Choice-based Diffusion Model with Switching Cost
2
조회
0
다운로드
4
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
In this study, we attempt to propose a choice-based diffusion model with switching cost, which can be used to forecast the dynamic substitution and competition among previous and new products at both individual-level and aggregate level, especially when market data for new products is insufficient. Additionally, we apply the proposed model to the empirical case of substitution and competition among Analog Cable TV that represents previous fixed charged broadcasting service and Digital Cable TV and Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) that are new ones, verify the validities of our proposed model, and finally derive related empirical implications. For empirical application, we obtained data from survey conducted as follows. Survey was administered by Dongseo Research to 1,000 adults aging from 20 to 60 living in Seoul, Korea, in May of 2007, under the title of 'Demand analysis of next generation fixed interactive broadcasting services'. Conjoint survey modified as follows, was used. First, as the traditional approach in conjoint analysis, we extracted 16 hypothetical alternative cards from the orthogonal design using important attributes and levels of next generation interactive broadcasting services which were determined by previous literature review and experts' comments. Again, we divided 16 conjoint cards into 4 groups, and thus composed 4 choice sets with 4 alternatives each. Therefore, each respondent faces 4 different hypothetical choice situations. In addition to this, we added two ways of modification. First, we asked the respondents to include the status-quo broadcasting services they subscribe to, as another alternative in each choice set. As a result, respondents choose the most preferred alternative among 5 alternatives consisting of 1 alternative with current subscription and 4 hypothetical alternatives in 4 choice sets. Modification of traditional conjoint survey in this way enabled us to estimate the factors related to switching cost or switching threshold in addition to the effects of attributes. Also, by using both revealed preference data(1 alternative with current subscription) and stated preference data (4 hypothetical alternatives), additional advantages in terms of the estimation properties and more conservative and realistic forecast, can be achieved. Second, we asked the respondents to choose the most preferred alternative while considering their expected adoption timing or switching timing. Respondents are asked to report their expected adoption or switching timing among 14 half-year points after the introduction of next generation broadcasting services. As a result, for each respondent, 14 observations with 5 alternatives for each period, are obtained, which results in panel-type data. Finally, this panel-type data consisting of 4*14*1000=56000 observations is used for estimation of the individual-level consumer adoption model. From the results obtained by empirical application, in case of forecasting the demand of new products without considering existence of previous product(s) and(or) switching cost factors, it is found that overestimated speed of diffusion at introductory stage or distorted predictions can be obtained, and as such, validities of our proposed model in which both existence of previous products and switching cost factors are properly considered, are verified. Also, it is found that proposed model can produce flexible patterns of market evolution depending on the degree of the effects of consumer preferences for the attributes of the alternatives on individual-level state transition, rather than following S-shaped curve assumed a priori. Empirically, it is found that in various scenarios with diverse combinations of prices, IPTV is more likely to take advantageous positions over Digital Cable TV in obtaining subscribers. Meanwhile, despite inferiorities in many technological attributes, Analog Cable TV, which is regarded as previous product in our analysis, is likely to be substituted by new services gradually rather than abruptly thanks to the advantage in low service charge and existence of high switching cost in fixed charged broadcasting service market.
Abstract
In this study, we attempt to propose a choice-based diffusion model with switching cost, which can be used to forecast the dynamic substitution and competition among previous and new products at both individual-level and aggregate level, especially when market data for new products is insufficient. Additionally, we apply the proposed model to the empirical case of substitution and competition among Analog Cable TV that represents previous fixed charged broadcasting service and Digital Cable TV and Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) that are new ones, verify the validities of our proposed model, and finally derive related empirical implications. For empirical application, we obtained data from survey conducted as follows. Survey was administered by Dongseo Research to 1,000 adults aging from 20 to 60 living in Seoul, Korea, in May of 2007, under the title of 'Demand analysis of next generation fixed interactive broadcasting services'. Conjoint survey modified as follows, was used. First, as the traditional approach in conjoint analysis, we extracted 16 hypothetical alternative cards from the orthogonal design using important attributes and levels of next generation interactive broadcasting services which were determined by previous literature review and experts' comments. Again, we divided 16 conjoint cards into 4 groups, and thus composed 4 choice sets with 4 alternatives each. Therefore, each respondent faces 4 different hypothetical choice situations. In addition to this, we added two ways of modification. First, we asked the respondents to include the status-quo broadcasting services they subscribe to, as another alternative in each choice set. As a result, respondents choose the most preferred alternative among 5 alternatives consisting of 1 alternative with current subscription and 4 hypothetical alternatives in 4 choice sets. Modification of traditional conjoint survey in this way enabled us to estimate the factors related to switching cost or switching threshold in addition to the effects of attributes. Also, by using both revealed preference data(1 alternative with current subscription) and stated preference data (4 hypothetical alternatives), additional advantages in terms of the estimation properties and more conservative and realistic forecast, can be achieved. Second, we asked the respondents to choose the most preferred alternative while considering their expected adoption timing or switching timing. Respondents are asked to report their expected adoption or switching timing among 14 half-year points after the introduction of next generation broadcasting services. As a result, for each respondent, 14 observations with 5 alternatives for each period, are obtained, which results in panel-type data. Finally, this panel-type data consisting of 4*14*1000=56000 observations is used for estimation of the individual-level consumer adoption model. From the results obtained by empirical application, in case of forecasting the demand of new products without considering existence of previous product(s) and(or) switching cost factors, it is found that overestimated speed of diffusion at introductory stage or distorted predictions can be obtained, and as such, validities of our proposed model in which both existence of previous products and switching cost factors are properly considered, are verified. Also, it is found that proposed model can produce flexible patterns of market evolution depending on the degree of the effects of consumer preferences for the attributes of the alternatives on individual-level state transition, rather than following S-shaped curve assumed a priori. Empirically, it is found that in various scenarios with diverse combinations of prices, IPTV is more likely to take advantageous positions over Digital Cable TV in obtaining subscribers. Meanwhile, despite inferiorities in many technological attributes, Analog Cable TV, which is regarded as previous product in our analysis, is likely to be substituted by new services gradually rather than abruptly thanks to the advantage in low service charge and existence of high switching cost in fixed charged broadcasting service market.
참고문헌 (42)
- 강재원, "방송ㆍ통신 융합서비스의 규제 방향: IPTV에 대한 규제를 중심으로", 한국방송학보, 20(2), pp.7~43 (2006), 한국방송학회
- 고대영, "신규 융합형 방송서비스 속성에 대한 소비자 선호 분석을 통한？미래방송서비스 시장 예측", 기술혁신연구, 14(1), pp.227~254 (2006), 기술경영경제학회
- 김도연, "IP-TV 도입의 영향 요인과 정책 쟁점", 방송통신연구, (60), pp.117~138 (2005), 한국방송학회
- 김연배, "소비자 선호 관점에서 본 차세대 무선 이동통신 단말기의 미래", 기술혁신연구, 12(1), pp.189~218 (2004), 기술경영경제학회
- 이종수, "전환비용의 추정과 시장구조적 시사점에 관한 연구: 이동통신 서비스 산업과 번호이동성 제도를 중심으로", 산업조직연구, 12(2), pp.33~58 (2004), 한국산업조직학회
- 강유리, "통신사업의지속가능경영에 대한 연구: 지수개발 및 정부의 역할을 중심으로", 정보통신정책연구, 13(3), pp.147~176 (2006), 정보통신정책학회
- 이종수, "선택기반확산 모형을 이용한 차세대 대형 TV의 수요예측", 정보통신정책연구, 11(4), pp.57~81 (2004), 정보통신정책학회
- 전덕빈, "국내 아날로그와 디지털 이동전화 서비스 가입자 수 예측을 위한 선택 관점의 대체 확산 모형", 경영과학, 19(2), pp.125~138 (2002), 한국경영과학회
- 전덕빈, "설문자료를 이용한 국내 PCS 재판매 서비스수요예측", IE Interface, 13(4), pp.619~626 (2000)
- 주정민, "IPTV의 방송통신 융합적 특성과 도입정책에 관한 연구", 사이버커뮤니케이션학보, 15(1), pp.161~198 (2005), 사이버커뮤니케이션학회
- Bayus,B.L., "High-definition television: assessing demand forecasts for a nextgeneration consumer durable", Management Science, 39, pp.1319~1333 (1993)
- Ben-Akiva,M., "Estimation of switching models from revealed preferences and stated intentions", Transportation Research A, 24, pp.485~495 (1990)
- Bhat,C., "A unified mixed logit framework for modeling revealed and stated preferences: Formulation and application to congestion pricing analysis in the San Francisco bay area", Transportation Research B, 36, pp.577~669 (2002)
- Brownstone,D., "Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles", Transportation Research B, 34, pp.315~338 (2000)
- Caussade,S., "Assessing the influence ofdesign dimensions on stated choice experiment estimates", Transportation Research B, 39, pp.621~640 (2005)
- Erdem,T., "Decision-Making under Uncertainty: Capturing Dynamic Choice Processes in Turbulent Consumer Goods Markets", Marketing Science, 15, pp.1~20 (1996)
- Erdem,T., "Learning About Computers: An Analysis of Information Search and Technology Choice", Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 3, pp.207~246 (2005)
- Hauser,J., "Research on innovation: A review and agenda for marketing science", Marketing Science, 25, pp.687~717 (2006)
- Hensher,D., "Accounting for stated choice design dimensionality in willingness to pay for travel time savings", Transportation Research B, 38, pp.425~446 (2004)
- Hensher,D., "How do respondents process stated choice experiments attribute consideration under varying information load", Journal of Applied Econometrics forthcoming (2006)
- Hensher,D., "Using stated response data to enrich revealed preference discrete choice models", Marketing Letters, 4, pp.39~152 (1993)
- Hensher,D., "Mixed logit models: State of practice", Transportation, 30, pp.133~176 (2003)
- Hsiao,C., "Analysis of panel data" (1986), Cambridge University Press
- Jun,D.B., "Forecasting demand for low earth orbit mobile satellite service in Korea", Telecommunication Systems, 14, pp.311~319 (2000)
- Jun,D.B., "A choice-based diffusion model for multiple generations of products", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 61, pp.45~58 (1999)
- Jun,D.B., "Forecasting telecommunication service subscribers in substitutive and competitive environments", International Journal of Forecasting, 18, pp.561~581 (2002)
- Kim,N., "Consumer decision-making in a multi-generational choice set context", Journal of Business Research, 53, pp.123~136 (2001)
- Kim,M., "Estimating switching costs: the case of banking", Journal of Financial Intermediation, 12, pp.25~56 (2003)
- Kim,Y., "Estimation of consumer preferences on new telecommunication service: IMT 2000 service in Korea", Information Economics and Policy, 17, pp.73~84 (2005)
- Kim,Y., "Effect of consumer preferences on the convergence of mobile telecommunication devices", Applied Economics, 37, pp.817~826 (2005)
- Lee,C., "Demand forecasting for new technology with a short history in a competitive environment: the case of the home networking market in South Korea", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75, pp.91~106 (2008)
- Lee,J., "Estimating the extent of potential competition in the Korean mobile telecommunications market: Switching costs and number portability", International Journal of Industrial Organization, 24, pp.107~124 (2006)
- Lee,J., "Forecasting future demand for largescreen television sets using conjoint analysis with diffusion model", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73, pp.362~376 (2006)
- Lenk,P.J., "New models from old: forecasting product adoption by hierarchical Bayus procedures", Marketing Science, 9, pp.42~53 (1990)
- Mahajan,V., "A simple algebraic estimation procedure for innovation diffusion models of new product acceptance", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 30, pp.331~345 (1986)
- McFadden,D., "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration", Econometrica, 57, pp.995~1026 (1989)
- Mueller,M.L., "Digital identity: How users value the attributes of online identifiers", Information Economics and Policy, 18, pp.405~422 (2006)
- Qi,M., "Forecasting Consumer Credit Card Adoption: What Can We Learn About the Utility Function", International Journal of Forecasting, 19, pp.71~85 (2002)
- Sultan,F., "A meta-analysis of applications of diffusion models", Journal of Marketing Research, 27, pp.70~77 (1990)
- Train,K., "Econometric Analysis of Stated-Preference Experiments Constructed from Revealed-Preference Choices, working paper" (2006), Berkeley University
- Train,K., "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulations" (2002), Cambridge University Press
- Yang,S., "Unrealistic Optimism in Consumer Credit Card Adoption", Journal of Economic Psychology, 28, pp.170~185 (2007)