관심분산이론이론의 적용을 통해본 2013 개성공단사태에 관한 연구
An Explanation for Gaeseong Industrial Complex in 2013 with Diversionary Theory
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초록
본 연구는 2007년부터 시작하여 남북한의 협력의 상징이 된 개성공단의 부침에 대한 설명을 위해 관심분산이론을 적용하여 한국의 국내정치적 상황이 대외정책인 개성공단의 협력재개에 어떤 영향을 미치는지를 분석하고 그 정책적 대안을 제시하였다. 한국은 여론의 관심을 분산시 키기 위해서 갈등이나 협력의 대외정책을 적용할 가능성이 상당히 높다는 전제에서 출발하였다. 한반도의 남북관계에서 여론의 관심을 전환하기 위해서 군사적 개입은 상당히 위험한 정책수단 임에 반해서 협력적 사건의 활성화를 통한 여론의 환기는 상대적으로 정책적으로 유효한 대안으로 평가된다. 북한은 남한의 이런 사정을 알고 협력과 갈등을 번갈아 가면서 사용하는 대남정책을 통해 개성공단의 정상화를 추구하면서 북한의 국내정치에도 활용하여 정권의 정당성을 강화하고 있다. 한국의 대북협력 정책에 있어서 남북한의 불안한 긴장관계가 심화되면 주변질서의 불안이 증폭된다는 점에서 한국의 정책적 선택의 폭은 감소한다. 이런 점을 고려할 때 한국 정부에게 주어진 과제는 양보와 타협이냐 원칙에 기초한 강경론이냐의 기준이 아니라 한반도의 평화와 번영을 기준으로 선택해야 한다.
Abstract
This research applies the diversionary theory on the ebb and flow of Gaeseong Industrial Complex as a symbol of inter-Korean cooperation since 2007. The diversionary theory enables us to analyze the interaction between domestic politics and policies on North Korea. In other words, this will tell how the domestic politics in South Korea affects the resumption of Gaeseong Industrial Complex which was suspended due to the South Korean-U.S. joint military exercise in 2013. This article is based on an assumption that a democratic regime such as South Korea tends to rely on diversionary use of foreign policies on a traditional rival, North Korea. Under the Cold War confrontation in the Korean Peninsula, it is a dangerous approach for South Korea to adopt a military intervention in order to divert public attention from the domestic policy failure to external events. As far as diverting the public attention from the domestic policy failure, a cooperative event is an efficient and economic policy approach in a democratic country in terms of political costs. In order to normalize Gaeseong Industrial Complex, North Korea has taken advantage of the domestic politics of South Korea by alternating cooperation and conflict toward South Korea. North Korea has also strengthened the domestic legitimacy by relying on the inter-Korean relationship. As the tension in inter-Korean relation has been increased and the regional order has been destabilized, South Korea has faced with a limited policy choices to North Korea. Therefore, South Korean Government has to consider peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula as a criteria rather than estimating the efficiency between the concession and the hardline approaches to North Korea.
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