동아시아 안보질서에서 강대국과 중견국의 헤징전략
The Hedging Strategy of Great and Middle Powers in the East Asian Security Order
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21세기 동아시아 국제정치에서 지역질서 변화에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 변수는 중국의 부상에 따른 미중관계의 성격과 특징이라 할 수 있다. 이에 따라 국제정치의 전략적 영역으로 등장한 21세기 동아시아 지역의 안보질서는 미중관계의 불확실성으로 인해 유동적이고 과도기적 안보상황을 보여주고 있다. 그에 따라 미중은 상호 헤징전략을 채택하고 있을 뿐만 아니라, 미중 강대국 정치의 직접적인 영향권하에 있는 동아시아 대다수 국가들 역시 헤징전략을 통해 미중관계의 변화 양상에 대비하고자 하는 정책적 의도를 보이고 있다. 그에 따라 헤징전략은 오늘날 동아시아 차원에서 가장 많이 회자되는 대안적 안보전략으로 부상하게 되었다. 이런 맥락에서 이 글의 목적은 동아시아 국제정치에서 나타나고 있는 강대국과 상대적 약소국인 중견국의 헤징전략을 상호 비교․분석하고, 특히 다음과 같은 점에 초점을 두고자 한다. 첫째, 국제정치에서의 안보전략에 대한 개관을 통해 안보전략으로서의 헤징에 대한 개념적 이해를 돕고자 한다. 둘째, 강대국과 중견국 헤징전략의 구성요소와 목적의 차별성을 부각시키고자 한다. 셋째, 지역 안보질서에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 강대국 정치의 상호작용이 작동하는 상황에서 중견국이 헤징전략을 채택할 수 있는 상황적 조건을 제시하고자 한다. 넷째, 중견국 헤징 행태의 유형과 차별적 특징을 분석하고자 한다. 특히 힘이 비슷한 중견국일지라도 그 국가가 처한 지정학의 전략적 환경과 동맹관계 여부, 그리고 주변국들과의 역사적 관계성에 따라 헤징의 행태 및 목적이 달라질 수 있음을 제시하고자 한다.
Abstract
Over the last 20 years the strategic landscape of the world has transformed, as the East Asia replaced the Atlantic as the locus of global power, challenges, and opportunities. Above all the tectonic shift was caused by the China's rise and current economic weakness in the United States and Europe is further accentuating changes of the regional security order in the East Asia. Linked to the future of the East Asian security landscape is the core issue of how the U.S. and China will chart its path and toward what goal. Many middle powers like Japan, India, ASEAN states and so on in the East Asia also can't help being affected by the strategic relationship between the U.S. and China. This article examines to the strategic behaviors of the great and middle powers in the East Asia from the perspective of hedging strategy. The hedging strategy extends the logic of traditional balance of power theory, while maintaining a strong emphasis on structural incentives that critics found lacking in the soft balancing approach. Most states in the East Asia have calibrated their security and strategy in changing the U.S.-China relationship. In particular they are pursuing soft, institutional, limited balancing and diplomatically comprehensive engagement as part of a hedging strategy toward China. In this context, I analyze the components of hedging strategy in great and middle powers and try to compare their different goals of hedging strategy. Also I suggest three hedging behavior patterns that middle powers have adapted as an alternative security strategy and try to examine their different hedging characters.
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