이집트 무슬림형제단(MB)의 미래에 대한 고찰

Abstract

To investigate the current social strife, polarization, and violence in Egypt, it is necessary to explore on the confrontation between the Military-based secularism and Muslim Brotherhood(MB)-based Islamism. It means the potential for Islamist integration and the regime's ability to achieve political stability greatly depends on the MB's current situation and its future. The MB has been in crisis after the ouster of Mursi on July 3, 2013, regime's bloody crackdown in Raba'a, and regime's designation the MB as a terrorist organization. To overcome this crisis, the MB has changed its structure, ideology, and leadership. In the process of its changes, there happened internal conflicts between old generation and new generation. Youth members are now assuming a more active role in the MB, calling for revolutionary action against the regime. It means the internal conflicts between them are on the use of violence against the regime. The moderates and old leadership are worrying about youth members' joining radical groups like the Islamic State(IS), and hoping to use peaceful non-violent method. The youth members including members of Raba'a Islamist Youth and new leadership are calling for revolutionary action using violence against regime's bloody crackdown. Under these circumstances, the MB's future will be one of three possibilities. They are reconciliation with the regime, fragmentation into factions, and eradication by the regime. In spite of Mursi's overthrow, the MB remains an important role in Egypt. So it is needed the MB must recognize the failures of current protest, change the structure, withdraw from politics, and rethink its future for the future of Egypt's Islam and political Islam.