사고 위험성을 고려한 운행중지 결정 모형
A Forecasting and Decision Model that Incorporates Accident Risks
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참고문헌
초록
사고 위험성을 고려한 예측 및 의사결정 모형을 구축한다. 시스템을 즉시 운행중지 할 것인지 혹은 계획된 일정 기간을 더 운행 한 후 다시 의사결정을 내릴 것인지를 판단하는 방법론에 대해 연구한다. 의사결정을 내래는데 있어서 비용 및 위험에 대한 새로운 정보가 입수되는 대로 이를 반영한다. 예측 모형을 통해 분석된 결과들을 활용해 보다 나은 의사결정을 내리는 방법에 대해 연구한다.
Abstract
For a given plant design, improved decisions on when to shutdown an existing plant may be obtained by making better predictions of failure rates, by exerting efforts to collect more relevant information or by improving decision making models which put that information to best use. It is important that the models include the value of possible loss of lives and fear along with cleanup, decommissioning, relocation if the decisions derived from the model are to be useful. The decision model we have described enables us to investigate a class of optimal decisions on whether to shutdown or continue operating one period of time. The analysis and decision process is repeated at the end of each period with additional information about new costs and risks.
참고문헌 (7)
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- "Forecasting and Deciding When to Shutdown a Nuclear Power Plant to Prevent a Severe Accident", 23(55), pp.25~31 (2000)