원자력 발전소 사고 예측 모형과 병합한 최적 운행중지 결정 모형
Deciding the Optimal Shutdown Time Incorporating the Accident Forecasting Model
1
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Recently, the continuing operation of nuclear power plants has become a major controversial issue in Korea. Whether to continue to operate nuclear power plants is a matter to be determined considering many factors including social and political factors as well as economic factors. But in this paper we concentrate only on the economic factors to make an optimum decision on operating nuclear power plants. Decisions should be based on forecasts of plant accident risks and large and small accident data from power plants. We outline the structure of a decision model that incorporate accident risks. We formulate to decide whether to shutdown permanently, shutdown temporarily for maintenance, or to operate one period of time and then periodically repeat the analysis and decision process with additional information about new costs and risks. The forecasting model to predict nuclear power plant accidents is incorporated for an improved decision making. First, we build a one-period decision model and extend this theory to a multi-period model. In this paper we utilize influence diagrams as well as decision trees for modeling. And bayesian statistical approach is utilized. Many of the parameter values in this model may be set fairly subjective by decision makers. Once the parameter values have been determined, the model will be able to present the optimal decision according to that value.
Abstract
Recently, the continuing operation of nuclear power plants has become a major controversial issue in Korea. Whether to continue to operate nuclear power plants is a matter to be determined considering many factors including social and political factors as well as economic factors. But in this paper we concentrate only on the economic factors to make an optimum decision on operating nuclear power plants. Decisions should be based on forecasts of plant accident risks and large and small accident data from power plants. We outline the structure of a decision model that incorporate accident risks. We formulate to decide whether to shutdown permanently, shutdown temporarily for maintenance, or to operate one period of time and then periodically repeat the analysis and decision process with additional information about new costs and risks. The forecasting model to predict nuclear power plant accidents is incorporated for an improved decision making. First, we build a one-period decision model and extend this theory to a multi-period model. In this paper we utilize influence diagrams as well as decision trees for modeling. And bayesian statistical approach is utilized. Many of the parameter values in this model may be set fairly subjective by decision makers. Once the parameter values have been determined, the model will be able to present the optimal decision according to that value.
참고문헌 (21)
- Aitchison, J., "Statistical Prediction Analysis" (1975), Cambridge University Press
- 박수호, "로지스틱 회귀모형과 의사결정나무 모형을 이용한 Cochlodinium polykrikoides 적조 탐지 기법 연구", 한국전자통신학회 논문지, 13(4), pp.777~786 (2018), 한국전자통신학회[DOI]
- 최창근, "대만의 원자력발전소 건설은 어떻게 중단 되었는가: 정책옹호연합모형의 적용", 한국행정논집, 27(3), pp.673~689 (2015), 한국정부학회
- A Study on How to Enhance Nuclear Power Plants’ Emergency Management, "Ha, K.M.", The Korean Association for Local Government Studies, 1~16 (2017)
- Jeong, M. G., "A Study on the Big Data Modeling and Analysis of Natural Disaster-Oriented Safety Index", pp.2018
- Ju, R.-J., "Analysis of National Economic Effects of Nuclear Power Plants-Based on the unit No.5,6 of Shin-Kori Nuclear Power Plant", Korean Association of Public Finance, Conference, pp.1~27 (2017)
- 김현호, "최적화 모형을 이용한 장기 렌터카 회사의 운영 의사결정 방식의 비교 분석", 한국생산관리학회지, 29(2), pp.189~208 (2018), 한국생산관리학회[DOI]
- Kim, J.E., "A study on the Establishment of the Fire Protection Program for Permanent Shutdown and Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plant", Korean Institute of Fire Science & Engineering, pp.107~108 (2018)
- Kim, K, "The Conflicts and Awareness of Residents around Nuclear Power Plant : Case Study in the Surrounding Area of the Wolsong Nuclear Power Plant", pp.2018
- 김상원, "네트워크 분석적 의사결정기법을 활용한 우리나라 시군의 풍수해 안전성 평가 연구", 한국지역개발학회지, 24(2), pp.1~14 (2012), 한국지역개발학회
- Lee, D.D., "Evaluation of Overseas Strategy of Nuclear Power plant Decommissioning", Korean Society of Thermal Environmental Energies, pp.187~190 (2016)
- 이대웅, "정부신뢰가 위험인식과 정책 수용성에 미치는 영향: 한국의 원자력발전소 사례를 중심으로", 한국행정학보, 52(1), pp.229~257 (2018), 한국행정학회[DOI]
- Lee, H.S., "Strategies for Improving the Safety and Relief Management in the Disposal of Decommissioning Waste from Nuclear Power Plants", Korean Studies Information Services System, pp.1~216 (2017)
- Implementation of Environmental Impact Assessment for the Decommissioning of Nuclear Power Plant, "Rhee, Y.J.", Korea Environmental Institute, 1~84 (2018)
- Ryu, K. H., "The EFASIT Model for an Efficient Decision Making", pp.2018
- Shachter, R. D., "Evaluating Influence Diagrams", Operations Research, 34(26), pp.871~882 (1987)
- 신원상, "건설기계·장비의 안전재해 네트워크 및 위험도 분석", 대한건축학회논문집 구조계, 34(5), pp.35~42 (2018), 대한건축학회
- 양희중, "Forecasting Accidents by Transforming Event Trees into Influence disgrams", 한국산업경영시스템학회지, 29(1), pp.72~75 (2006), 한국산업경영시스템학회
- Yang, H. J., "Predicting Nuclear Power Plant Accidents in Korea", IE Interfaces, 6, pp.79~89 (1993)
- 양희중, "베이지안 기법을 이용한 안전사고 예측기법", 대한안전경영과학회지, 9(5), pp.1~5 (2007), 대한안전경영과학회
- Yang, K.Y., "A Study on the Selection of Construction Method by Decision Making Method", Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction, 2(1), pp.17~24 (2002)