경제추격과 R&D투자가 성장과 수출에 미치는 영향 분석
An Empirical Study on Impacts of Catch-up and R&D Investment on Economic Growth and Exports
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초록
신성장이론에서는 기술혁신이 국가 간 경제성장의 격차를 결정하는 중요한 요인이며, 후발국이 선도국을 추격하기 위한 혁신활동으로서 R&D투자가 강조되었다. 그러나 후발국의 생산성 수준이 증가하고 추격범위가 좁혀짐에 따라서 선도국 추격을 위한 R&D투자의 양적확대는 한계가 있는 것으로 보인다. 본 연구에서는 추격범위가 감소함에 따라 미국이나 일본과 같은 선진국에 대한 후발자의 이익이 감소하기 때문에 한국의 경제성장이 둔화될 수 있음을 확인하고자 하였으며, 이에 OECD 통계를 활용하여 패널분석을 실시하였다. 본 연구의 분석결과는 아래와 같이 요약된다. 첫째, '따라잡기 가설'에 근거하여 한국의 선진국과의 생산성 격차가 축소함에 따라서 경제성장이 둔화되는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 한국의 선진국과의 R&D투자 격차가 축소함에 따라서 R&D투자의 제조업 수출 기여도가 감소하는 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
New growth theory has considered technological innovation as an important determinant of growth gap among countries and emphasized R&D investment as an innovation activity for developing countries to catch-up developed countries. However an enlargement of R&D investment is self-limiting to catch-up early starter as the level of productivity of late starter increases, and the scope for catch-up decreases. In this study, I will try to investigates whether the Korea's potential for growth weakens or not because of decreasing of late starter's benefit against advanced countries such as United States and Japan as the scope for catch-up decreases For these, this study implements panel analysis using the OECD STAN database The result of this study can be summarized as follows. First, Korea's potential for growth weakens as its productivity level converges toward that of advanced countries based on the 'catch-up hypothesis'. Second, an enlargement of R&D investment is self-limiting to expand exports of manufacturing in Korea as the R&D investment of Korea converges toward that of advanced countries.
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