“무역보험의 수출증진효과-수출보험을 중심으로”
The Effect of Trade Insurance on Export Promotion: Focusing on the Export Insurance Scheme
0
조회
0
다운로드
5
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구는 무역보험이 수출증진에 기여하는지에 대해 우리나라의 1992-2019년 자료를 이용하여 분석하며, 이를 위해 탄력성 접근에 근거한 수출공급함수를 이용한다. 본 연구는 무역보험의 여러 유형들중 가장 큰 비중을 차지하는 수출보험에 초점을 맞추며, 기간별 차이의 가능성에 주목하여 단기와중장기수출보험의 인수율이 각각 수출공급에 영향을 주었는지를 점검하고, 국내수요압력가설을 검증한다. 변수들은 0차 혹은 1차 적분된 것으로 나타나, ARDL분산한계검정방식을 이용한 공적분검정을 행했으며, 그 결과 관련변수들 간의 공적분 관계는 존재하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 안정적 변수로변형시킨 변수들에 대해 회귀분석을 시행한 결과, 수출상대가격은 통계적으로 유의미한, 예상된 결과를 보였으나, 기간과 무관하게 수출보험인수율 변화는 수출/GNI 비율에 유의미한 영향을 주지 않았으며, 국내수요압력가설은 지지되지 않았다.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the effect of trade insurance on export promotion, using annually observed data for the Korean economy during 1992-2019. In the empirical analysis, it uses export supply function based on the elasticity approach to the trade balance. It particularly compares the short run with the long run export insurance in export promotion and tests the domestic demand pressure hypothesis. All the concerned variables are revealed to be integrated of order zero or one. ARDL variance bounds tests show that the concerned variables are not cointegrated. The estimation results using the stationary series show that the export relative price has a positive and statistically significant effect on exports, which is consistent with the expectation in the elasticity approach. Meanwhile, neither short-run nor the mediumto long-run export insurance is revealed to have any significant effect on export values/GNI ratio. There is no significant evidence supporting the domestic demand pressure hypothesis.
참고문헌 (33)
- 마재신, "중소기업 수출경쟁력 강화를 위한 수출증진정책", 경제연구, 37(2), pp.1~18 (2019), 한국경제통상학회[DOI]
- 이서영, "중소기업의 수출지원을 위한 공적수출신용의 활용성과에 관한 연구", 무역연구, 16(2), pp.503~515 (2020), 한국무역연구원[DOI]
- 이성봉, "우리나라 중소기업 수출지원체계의 효율화 방안에 관한 연구", 질서경제저널, 16(1), pp.81~100 (2013), 한국질서경제학회
- 이의영, "정부의 수출지원이 중소기업 수출에 미치는 효과", 기업경영연구, 17(4), pp.197~213 (2010), 한국기업경영학회
- 산업통상자원부, "2019년 무역통상진흥시책", 산업통상자원부, ~ (2019)
- "국가통계포털" (2021)[URL]
- Annual Report 2012, "한국무역보험공사", ~ (2013)
- Annual Report 2014, "한국무역보험공사", ~ (2015)
- Annual Report 2016, "한국무역보험공사", ~ (2017)
- Annual Report 2018, "한국무역보험공사", ~ (2019)
- "회사 소개" (2020)[URL]
- Annual Report 2019, "한국무역보험공사", ~ (2020)
- "공공데이터포털" (2021)[URL]
- Agarwal, N., "Does the US EXIM Bank really promote US exports?", The World Economy, 41(5), pp.1378~1414 (2018)
- Akgunduz, E. Y., "Do subsidised export loans increase exports?", The World Economy, 41(8), pp.2200~2213 (2018)
- Algieri, B., "Drivers of Export Demand: A Focus on the GIIPS Countries", The World Economy, 37(10), pp.1454~1482 (2014)
- Arslan, I., "Export Incentives, Exchange Rate Policy and Export Growth in Turkey", Review of Economics and Statistics, 75, pp.128~133 (1993)
- Banerjee, A., "Error- Correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single-Equation Framework", Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3), pp.267~283 (1998)
- Blackmon, P, "The Political Economy of Trade Finance" (2017), Routledge
- Bussiere, M., "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009", American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 5(3), pp.118~151 (2013)
- Goldstein, M., "Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 2" (1985), Elsevier Science
- Houthakker, H. S., "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade", Review of Economics and Statistics, 51(2), pp.111~125 (1969)
- International Credit Insurance & Surety Association(ICISA), "A Guide to Trade Credit Insurance" (2015), Anthem Press
- Janda, K., "Credit Support for Exports: Robust Evidence from the Czech Republic", The World Economy, 36(12), pp.1588~1610 (2013)
- 이서영, "Effect of Export Insurance on Export Promotion in Korea: Comparing the Short-term Types and the Medium and Long-term Types", 무역연구, 10(4), pp.1~14 (2014), 한국무역연구원[DOI]
- Mah, J. S., "The Effect of the Export Insurance Subsidy on Export Supply: The Experience of Japan", Journal of Asian Economics, 17(4), pp.646~652 (2006)
- Mah, J. S., "Industrial Policy and Economic Development: The Experience of Korea", Journal of Economic Issues, 41(1), pp.77~92 (2007)
- Mah, J. S., "Special and Differential Treatment of Developing Countries Regarding Export Promotion Policies under the WTO", The World Economy, 34(12), pp.1999~2018 (2011)
- Narayan, P. K., "The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests", Applied Economics, 37, pp.1979~1990 (2005)
- "OECD" (2021)[URL]
- Orcutt, G., "Measurement of Price Elasticities in International Trade", Review of Economics and Statistics, 32(2), pp.117~132 (1950)
- Pesaran, M. H., "Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, pp.289~326 (2001)
- Salcic, Z, "Export Credit Insurance & Guarantees: a Practitioner’s Guide" (2014), Palgrave