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영국, 독일, 스웨덴의 연금제도는 수렴하고 있는가? 급여 적절성과 재정적 지속가능성을 중심으로

Are Pension Systems between the UK, Germany and Sweden Converging? Focusing on Benefit Adequacy and Financial Sustainability

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본 연구는 서구 국가들이 최근의 연금개혁을 통해서 전통적인 베버리지형 연금체제와 비스마르크형 연금체제 구분에서 벗어나 재정적 지속가능성과 적절성 측면에서 유사해지고 있는지를 영국, 독일, 스웨덴의 비교를 통해 살펴본다. 지난 20여 년간의 연금개혁을 통해서 베버리지형과 비스마르크형 연금체제의 격차는 줄어들 것으로 보이며, 특히 급여의 적절성 기준으로 세 국가의 연금제도가수렴하고 있는 경향이 발견된다. 재정적 지속가능성의 경우에는 세 국가의 공적연금 지출 수준이 수렴하고 있다고 단정할 수는 없으나, 10여 년 전의 추계에 비해서 향후 지출 수준의 차이는 크게 줄어들었으며, 각 국의 인구고령화 정도의 차이를 고려하는 경우 재정적 지속가능성 측면에서도 수렴 경향이 발견된다. 이 연구는 우리나라 연금 논의에서도 재정적 지속가능성과 적절성에 대한 소모적 논쟁 대신, 선진국에서 수렴하고 있는 지출과 소득대체율 범위에서 재정적 지속가능성과 적절성 사이의 합의가 필요함을 시사한다.

Abstract

This paper examines whether the pension systems of the western countries which was traditionally classified into the Beveridgean and Bismarckian pension regime will converge after recent pension reforms in the financial sustainability and adequacy perspective by comparing between UK, Germany and Sweden. As a result of pension reforms for the last 20 years, the gap between the Beveridgean and Bismarckian pension regime will be likely to decrease and, in particular, the tendency to convergency in adequacy is found. Even though it is not jumped to a conclusion that public pension expenditure between the three countries is likely to converge, the tendency to convergency in financial sustainability is also found if the difference of demographic aging between countries is considered. The paper suggests that it is necessary to make agreement between the range of pension expenditure and replacement ratio that western countries suggest in pension debate in Korea, instead of hitherto useless controversy between financial sustainability and adequacy.

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