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수출다각화 관점에서의 국가 경제발전단계 이해

Understanding the stages of economic development from the perspective of export diversification

김윤영|강태원|이정동|신기윤|엄원섭
한국경제통상학회 (The Korean Economic and Business Association)|2023.05|경제연구 (Journal of Economics Studies)|제41권 제2호|pp. 177-198

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키워드

비연관다각화경로이탈적Long Jump Ratio수출다각화경제발전Unrelated DiversificationPath-defyingExport DiversificationEconomic Development
주제분류경제학

초록

본 연구는 국가의 경제발전과 수출다각화 간의 관계를 규명한다. 특히, 비연관다각화 지수인 Long Jump Ratio (엄원섭 외, 2022)를 도입하고, 국가가 발전함에 있어서 수출구조의 비연관다각화 역할에대해서 이해한다. 그동안 경제발전을 위해 경로의존성을 가지는 연관다각화가 강조되었지만, 일부선행연구에서는 경제성장을 달성한 국가에서 경로이탈적인 비연관다각화가 중요한 역할을 했음을주장한다. 이러한 대립 논쟁을 이해하기 위해 본 연구에서는 전 세계 국가를 대상으로 정량분석을진행한다. 1963년부터 2017년까지 205개국을 대상으로 한 회귀분석과 사례분석한 결과에 따르면, 비연관다각화 지수(Long Jump Ratio)와 1인당 GDP 간에는 역 U자형 관계가 나타난다. 다시 말해, 중저소득국가에서는 농수산물 위주의 수출구조에서 경공업, 중화학공업 등으로 비연관다각화가 증가(Long Jump Ratio 증가)하는 역량도입을 통해 성장한다. 이후 선진국단계에서는 새로운 영역으로다각화를 추구하기보다 기존 제품영역에서의 역량을 강화(Long Jump Ratio 감소)하는 역량심화가필요하다. 본 연구는 수출구조의 비연관다각화 관점에서 경제발전 과정을 이해하는 프레임워크를제안하고, 지속 성장을 위한 혁신 및 산업정책 수립에 있어 시사점을 제공한다.

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between national economic development and export diversification. In particular, Long Jump Ratio (Eum et al., 2022) index is introduced to understand the role of unrelated diversification in the export structure during economic development. So far, previous studies have emphasized path-dependent diversification for economic development, but some recent studies argue that unrelated diversification played an important role in countries that experienced successful economic growth. In order to provide further evidence to this debate, this study conducts a quantitative analysis targeting countries around the world. Regression and case studies of 205 countries from 1963 to 2017 show an inverted U-shaped relationship between Long Jump Ratio and GDP per capita. In other words, low- and middle-income countries grow through capability introduction that increases unrelated diversification (higher Long Jump Ratio) in their export structures, from agricultural products to light and heavy chemical industries. Afterwards, in the high-income stage, rather than pursuing diversification into new areas, countries deepen capabilities to strengthen capabilities in existing product areas (lower Long Jump Ratio). This study proposes a framework for understanding the economic development process from the perspective of unrelated diversification of export structures, and provides implications for establishing innovation and industrial policies for continuous economic growth.

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