기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 여름철 사망자 수 예측
Prediction of the Future Summertime Deaths Based on Climate Change Scenario
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초록
기후변화로 인해 도시 지역에서 발생하는 폭염 피해는 계속해서 증가하고 있으며, 폭염의 강도 및 기간이 증가할 것이라는 전망에 따라 그 심각성이 중요해지고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 현재까지의 사망자 통계를 활용하여 WBGT(Wet Bulb Globe Temperature)와 사망자 간의 상관관계를 분석하고, 도출된 회귀식을 활용하여 미래 사망자 수를 예측하는 분석을 수행하였다. 분석 결과 일 평균 WBGT와 사망자 수 사이에는 양의 상관관계가 있으며 서울의 경우 27.13°C, 부산의 경우 24.7°C를 기점으로 WBGT 상승에 따라 사망자가 급증하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 기상청 남한상세시나리오의 4개의 SSP 시나리오를 통해 미래 사망자 수를 예측한 결과 SSP 서울에서 더 큰 폭으로 사망자가 증가할 것이라 전망되었다. SSP 시나리오에 따르면 서울의 경우 21세기 말 최소 123%에서 최대 182%까지 사망자 수가 증가할 것으로 전망되었고 부산의 경우 최소 109%에서 최대 119%까지 증가할 것이라 전망되어 미래 폭염 피해에 대한 심각성을 보여주었다.
Abstract
Climate change is causing an ongoing increase in heatwave-related damages in urban areas, and the projected intensification of heatwaves in terms of both intensity and duration underscores the growing significance of this issue. Therefore, in this study, current mortality statistics were utilized to analyze the correlation between Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and fatalities. Using the derived regression equation, an analysis was conducted to predict future mortality rates. The results indicate a positive correlation between daily average WBGT and the number of fatalities. Specifically, in Seoul, a sharp increase in fatalities was observed with WBGT rising, with a threshold of 27.13 degrees, and in Busan, the threshold was 24.7 degrees. Using four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios provided by the Meteorological Administration’s detailed scenario for South Korea, future mortality rates were predicted. The forecast suggests a more substantial increase in fatalities in SSP Seoul. According to the SSP scenarios, it is projected that by the end of the 21st century, fatalities in Seoul could increase by a minimum of 123% to a maximum of 182%, while in Busan, the projected increase ranges from a minimum of 109% to a maximum of 119%. This highlights the severity of future heatwave-related damages.
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