기후변화에 따른 시간별 WBGT 변화와 노동력 손실
The Impact of Climate Change on Hourly WBGT and Working Capacity
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초록
기후변화로 인해서 폭염의 강도와 빈도가 증가할 것으로 예측되고 있다. 폭염의 증가는 여러 분야에서 리스크 및 손실을 증가시킬 것이며, 그중에서도 노동자의 열 스트레스를 높여 작업역량을 낮출 것으로 예측된다. 열 스트레스 지표 중 하나인 WBGT(Web Bulb Globe Temperature)는 작업역량 및 노동생산성과 연관이 있다. 기존의 연구에서는 일 평균 WBGT를 구하여 평균적인 노동력 손실을 예측해왔다. 하지만 본 연구에서는 시간별 WBGT를 구해 더욱 정확한 노동력 손실을 예측하고, 작업 시간 변화에 따른 적응 효과를 확인하였다. 서울시를 대상으로 두 가지 기후변화 시나리오에 따라 여름철 총 노동시간을 예측한 결과, 기후변화에 따라 2050년도에는 노동시간이 총 82―354 백만 시간 저감 되고 2080년도에는 171―1,169 백만 시간이 저감 되었다. 기후변화 완화 수준에 따른 차이가 컸으며, 이 차이는 먼 미래가 될수록 증가했다. 작업 시간을 기존보다 2시간 이른 시간으로 바꾼다면, 위와 같은 손실이 70∼80% 수준으로 감소 될 수 있었다. 기후변화로 인한 노동력 손실을 정확히 예측한다면 노동력 손실이 가져오는 추가적인 생산 손실액을 확인하는 데 도움을 줄 수 있으며, 적응대책 및 기후보험 등과 같은 기후변화 대책에 도움이 될 수 있을 것이다.
Abstract
Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of heatwaves, leading to escalated economic losses and risks to human life. Among these risks, reduced working capacity due to increased heat stress on laborers is a significant concern. The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), a heat stress indicator, is closely associated with work capacity and labor productivity. While previous studies have focused on estimating the average daily WBGT to predict overall labor productivity loss, this study advances the field by estimating hourly WBGT to predict future labor productivity in Seoul, Korea. This advancement enables more accurate projection of labor productivity and assessment of the benefits associated with an adaptation strategy involving the shifting of working hours. Our findings reveal that total working hours in Seoul are projected to decrease to a range of 82―354 million hours in the 2050s and 171―1,169 million hours in the 2080s. The difference varied depending on the level of climate change mitigation, with larger differences observed as we look further into the future. By shifting working hours two hours earlier, it is possible to reduce the total loss to 70―80% of the projected level. Projecting hourly labor loss due to climate change facilitates the identification of additional production losses resulting from labor capacity reduction. This information is instrumental in establishing effective climate change measures, including adaptation strategies and climate insurance.
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