우리나라 기대수명의 패턴 변화, 1990-2020
Patterns and Changes in Life Expectancy in Korea, 1990-2020
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Objectives: The purpose of this study is to measure the contribution of life expectancy to changes in mortality due to age, sign in Korea. Methods: This study used the life table data (1990-2020) and analyzed the data of the death statistics of the National Statistical Office in 1990 and 2020 (Categorization data by ICD-10). The contribution of differen ages, and causes of death to the change in life expectancy at birth during the 1900-2020 was estimated with a decomposition technique developed by Arriaga. Results: The contribution to the average life span of 1990-2007 was 7.50 years, and 2.91 years between 2007-2015. From 1990 to 2007, the positive contributing causes of death were cerebrovascular disease (0.781 years), hypertensive disease (0.599 years), and heart disease (0.475 years), and the negative contributing causes were intentional self-harm (- 0.304 years), pneumonia (-0.209 years), and colon cancer (-0.092 years). From 2007 to 2015, the positive contributing causes were malignant neoplasms (0.548 years), cerebrovascular disease (0.529 years), and diabetes (0.162 years), and the negative contributing causes were pneumonia (-0.198 years), Alzheimer’s (-0.060 years), sepsis (-0.038 years), etc. From 2015 to 2020, the positive contributing causes of death were malignant neoplasms (0.474 years), cerebrovascular disease (0.301 years), and heart disease (0.475 years), and the negative contributing causes were intentional self-harm (-0.304 years), pneumonia (-0.209 years), and colon cancer (-0.092 years). In general, pneumonia was shown to be the cause of death with the largest negative contribution due to increased mortality, and the pattern by age group showed that the positive contribution was relatively large in the age group after 65 years of age. In common, the positive con- tribution of most causes decreased as time passed. Conclusions: The age group that contributed the most to the increase in life expectancy after 1990 was found to be 70-74 years old (0.74 years) from 1990-2007. In addition, it was found to have contributed significantly to those aged 70-74 (0.42 years) from 2007-2015 and those aged 75-79 (0.27 years) from 2015-2020. In the overall period, the contribution to average life expectancy appears to be large in the age group of 65 years or older, and in recent years, the contribution to average life expectancy from age 0 gradually decreases, while the contribu- tion to average life expectancy in the middle-aged and older age group increases. This study evaluated the increase in life expectancy by age and cause of death by applying join point regression analysis, which can partially complement the limitations of existing models, to evaluate and analyze the amount of life expectancy according to changes in mortality level.
Abstract
Objectives: The purpose of this study is to measure the contribution of life expectancy to changes in mortality due to age, sign in Korea. Methods: This study used the life table data (1990-2020) and analyzed the data of the death statistics of the National Statistical Office in 1990 and 2020 (Categorization data by ICD-10). The contribution of differen ages, and causes of death to the change in life expectancy at birth during the 1900-2020 was estimated with a decomposition technique developed by Arriaga. Results: The contribution to the average life span of 1990-2007 was 7.50 years, and 2.91 years between 2007-2015. From 1990 to 2007, the positive contributing causes of death were cerebrovascular disease (0.781 years), hypertensive disease (0.599 years), and heart disease (0.475 years), and the negative contributing causes were intentional self-harm (- 0.304 years), pneumonia (-0.209 years), and colon cancer (-0.092 years). From 2007 to 2015, the positive contributing causes were malignant neoplasms (0.548 years), cerebrovascular disease (0.529 years), and diabetes (0.162 years), and the negative contributing causes were pneumonia (-0.198 years), Alzheimer’s (-0.060 years), sepsis (-0.038 years), etc. From 2015 to 2020, the positive contributing causes of death were malignant neoplasms (0.474 years), cerebrovascular disease (0.301 years), and heart disease (0.475 years), and the negative contributing causes were intentional self-harm (-0.304 years), pneumonia (-0.209 years), and colon cancer (-0.092 years). In general, pneumonia was shown to be the cause of death with the largest negative contribution due to increased mortality, and the pattern by age group showed that the positive contribution was relatively large in the age group after 65 years of age. In common, the positive con- tribution of most causes decreased as time passed. Conclusions: The age group that contributed the most to the increase in life expectancy after 1990 was found to be 70-74 years old (0.74 years) from 1990-2007. In addition, it was found to have contributed significantly to those aged 70-74 (0.42 years) from 2007-2015 and those aged 75-79 (0.27 years) from 2015-2020. In the overall period, the contribution to average life expectancy appears to be large in the age group of 65 years or older, and in recent years, the contribution to average life expectancy from age 0 gradually decreases, while the contribu- tion to average life expectancy in the middle-aged and older age group increases. This study evaluated the increase in life expectancy by age and cause of death by applying join point regression analysis, which can partially complement the limitations of existing models, to evaluate and analyze the amount of life expectancy according to changes in mortality level.
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