확진자 접촉에 따른 개별격리를 적용한 감염모델
An Epidemic models applied with isolation conditions for people contacted with confirmed cases
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초록
본 연구에서는 질병관리본부(중앙방역대책본부)에서 적용하고 있는 방역 매뉴얼 중 확진자와 접촉한 인원의 개별 격리 조건을 기존 SIR 감염모델에 추가하여 발생초기단계(2주), 부대에서 쉽게 예측 가능한 감염모델인 SEIQQR을 개발하였다. 이를 통해 접촉횟수와 초기 감염인원에 따른 총 감염 인원과 가용병력을 예측하고자 한다. 또한 지속가능한 방역을 위해 부대 자체에서 확진자와 접촉한 인원을 위한 개별 격리공간의 규모를 예상해봄으로써 질병관리본부의 지침을 따르는데 어떠한 제약이 있는지 확인해본다.
Abstract
In this paper, we construct an epidemic model SEIQQR based on SIR model(1927). Recent studies have constructed SEIQR model or advanced one, however, they don’t contain isolation conditions for people contacted confirmed cases, so that it is difficult to apply to military quarantine policy in COVID-19 circumstance. So we have applied isolation conditions for contactor who contacted with people confirmed infection and added the contactor() as a subgroup to the SEIQR model. We construct a ODE system, and presented charts and tables showing the minimum value of the number of available personnel(military force) ; the maximum value of the number of quarantined personnel who contacted with people confirmed infection ; the total number of confirmed case.
참고문헌 (9)
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