개도국 탈산업화 현상의 이해
Understanding Deindustrialization in Developing Countries
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본 연구에서는 1991~2018년 기간을 대상으로 부가가치와 고용 측면에서의 개도국 탈산업화 현상을 고찰하고 있다. 분석결과에 따르면, 1차 산업과 서비스업을 제외한 산업부문 부가가치는 1인당 실질 GDP가 약 6,400달러 수준에 이르기까지 30% 초반 대까지 증가한 이후 감소하는 것으로 나타난다. 반면, 개도국의 경우 선진국과는 달리 고용의 탈산업화는 본격적으로 나타나지 않는 것으로 추정된다. 한편, 부가가치와 고용 비중의 주요 결정요인들은 제조업과 서비스업 간 생산성 격차, 1인당 GDP, 인구규모, 무역의존도, 도시화율, 자연자원 지대비중 등으로 나타난다. 또한, Baumol(1967)이 제시하듯이 제조업과 서비스업 간 생산성 격차가 클수록 산업부문 고용 비중은 줄어드는 반면, 서비스업의 고용 비중은 증가한다. 반면, 소득이 증가할수록 소득 탄력적인 서비스 수요가 증가하면서 탈산업화가 진전된다는 Clark (1940)의 가설은 현재의 개도국에는 적용되지 않는 것으로 나타난다.
Abstract
This paper empirically investigates the current status and key determinants of de-industrialization phenomenon in developing countries, using unbalanced panel data for the period of 1991-2018. Our analytic results confirm the evidence of de-industrialization for the developing country sample in terms of industrial value-added share, but not of employment structure. And our regression analysis suggests that the decisive factors for determining both value-added and employment shares of the industrial sector are the productivity level of manufacturing relative to services, per capita GDP level, population size, trade intensity, urbanization and the size of natural resource rents. In addition, as Baumol (1967) argues, if the relative productivity level of manufacturing is higher, then the employment share of the industrial sector becomes lower and that of services higher. On the other hand, we can not find the evidence of Clark (1940)’s hypothesis that the increase in income-elastic services demand induces de-industrialization.
참고문헌 (18)
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