Export Subsidies, Learning-By-Doing, and Foreign Demand : An Analysis of South Korean Export Performance
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이 논문은 한국의 수출 성과 원인을 규명하기 위하여 수출, 수출보조금, 환율 및 생산량의 관계를 동태적으로 고찰하고 있다. 수출과 생산량을 동시에 고려하고 학습효과를 포함하는 VAR 모형을 사용하여 본 연구는 다음과 같은 연구결과를 도출하였다. 첫째, 단기 및 장기 탄력성 분석을 통하여 한국 제조업의 수출은 수출보조금, 특히 자본재 수입을 위한 정부의 금융지원에 민감하게 반응하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 한국의 수출 성과는 경쟁국의 환율과 해외 경기에 큰 영향을 받는 것으로 추정되었다. 셋째, 수출에 따른 학습효과 또한 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 넷째, 한국의 수출 성과는 장기 균형 경로에서 이탈하면 조정과정을 거쳐 서서히 균형 경로로 수렴하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 연구결과는 WTO 체제 하에서 금지보조금으로 분류되고 있는 수출보조금의 수출증가와 경제성장에 있어서의 실질적인 역할을 부분적으로 규명했다는 점에서 개발도상국에게는 정책적으로 시사하는 바가 크다고 할 것이다.
Abstract
This paper shows that South Korean exports have been positively influenced by learning-by-doing, export subsidies, and foreign demand. A dynamic model of output and exports incorporating learning-by-doing effects is introduced. This model is operationalized with a VAR analysis to investigate the interactive dynamic behavior among exports, export subsidies, foreign exchange rates, and output in South Korea over the 1981~1992 period. The paper focuses attention on incentives for investing in capital goods intended to facilitate export and industrial production growth, a consideration not examined in previous studies. Short-run and long-run export elasticities are calculated from the estimation results of the VAR model. The results show large elasticities of exports with respect to export subsidies and learning-by-doing effects. At the same time, the total volume of exports in Korea has been strongly influenced by external factors, in particular economic conditions of Korea’s major trading partners, and foreign exchange rates of Japan and China. The results from the short-run error correction model suggest that exports show slow adjustment processes to their long-run equilibrium path.
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