한중 경제관계의 평가와 한중 FTA 전망

Abstract

Korea has experienced rapid increases in bilateral economic exchanges with China, since they established diplomatic relations in 1992. The economic exchanges in diverse channels have shown both quantitative increases and structural changes in this 15 year period, mainly based on high-growth of Chinese economy. Korean economy has benefitted from its rapidly-growing exchanges with China, enjoying such effects as economic growth, price stability, and structural upgrading. However, its dependence on Chinese economy increased sharply and costs for too-rapid structural changes have not been negligible. The claim of so-called “industrial hollowing-out" due to China cannot find its solid ground. The prospects of Korea-China FTA, which has been recently discussed in public, are not clear. In theory, the bilateral FTA would have mutually beneficial effects. In practice, the positive effects for Korea may not be that large or uncertain depending on the coverage and contents of the agreement. Also, the degree of dependency on China would increase further. However, the negotiation power of Korea is relatively weak. The alternatives will be either to establish a low-level traditional FTA in a short period of time or to negotiate a high-level broader-ranged FTA in a long-term perspective. The decision will not be easy, but it will have severe consequences for future Korean economy.