인구구조 변화가 저축과 경상수지에 미치는 영향
The Effects of Demographic Changes on Saving and Current Account
0
조회
0
다운로드
19
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 논문은 인구구조 변화가 저축과 경상수지에 미치는 영향을 실증 분석하였다. G-7국가의 자료로 패널 VAR모형을 이용한 분석을 한 결과, 부양률의 증가가 저축률, 특히 정부 저축률과 경상수지를 상당한 정도로 감소시킨다는 것을 발견하였다. 한국 자료를 이용한 간단한 VAR분석도 비슷한 결과를 보여준다. 이러한 결과를 토대로 향후 급속한 고령화 과정이 진행될 한국의 경우 저축률의 감소와 경상수지의 악화를 경험할 것으로 예측할 수 있다.
Abstract
This paper investigates empirically the effects of demographic changes on saving and current account. The econometric investigation based on the panel VAR model shows substantial demographic effects on national saving rates and current account balances in the major advanced(G-7) countries. An increase in dependency rate significantly lowers saving rates, especially public saving rates, and worsens the current account. We also find similar negative effects on saving and current account for the Korean economy using a simple VAR model. These results suggest that the Korean economy is likely to experience significant deterioration in national savings and the current account balances over the coming decades given expected rapid population aging trends in Korea.
참고문헌 (59)
- "고령화와 저축?국민연금을 중심으로" (2004)
- "한국의 저축률 추이에 관한 연구", 97(06) (1997), 한국조세연구원
- "한국의 급속한 고령화에 따른 재정추계", 10(2) (2004)
- "정부 정책과 저축?국가간 패널자료 및 한국의 시계열 자료 분석", 3(2) (1997)
- "공적연금이 가계저축에 미치는 영향" (2003)
- "고령화와 재정정책의 저축에 대한 효과분석" (2005), 인천대학교
- "고령화 사회의 노동시장 정책에 관한 연구" (2002), 한국개발연구원
- "고령화에 대비하기 위한 금융부문의 대응 :금융정책 심포지엄" (2005), 한국금융연구원
- "인구구조의 변화와 조세 재정정책(1)?조세정책의 세대간 재분배효과를 중심으로" (2003), 한국조세연구원
- "인구구조의 고령화와 거시경제적 파급효과:KDI 보고서" (2004)
- "우리나라 저축률 결정요인", (겨울) (1997)
- "국민연금통계연보" (2003), 국민연금관리공단
- "장래인구추계" (2001), 통계청
- "인구구조 고령화의 경제적 영향과 대응과제" (2003), 한국개발연구원
- "인구구조 고령화의 경제적 영향과 대응과제" (2004), 한국개발연구원
- "The Global Impact of Demographic Change" (2005), IMF
- "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation", 25, pp.49~99 (1986)
- "Aging and Inter- national Capital Flows" (2002), Heilderberg: Springer
- "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey" (2004), The Brookings Institution
- "Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe", 50(2) (2003)
- "Cross-Border Macroeconomic Implications of Demographic Change" (2004), Brookings Institutions
- "Buffer Stock Saving and the Life Cycle", Permanent Income Hypothesis, 1997, pp.112, 1~55
- "Medium-term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration", 59, pp.47~76 (2003)
- "Monetary Policy Shocks: What have We Learned and to What End?", 1, pp.65~148 (1999), North-Holland, Amsterdam
- "Population Growth and Economic Develo- pment in Low-Income Countries" (1958), Princeton University Press
- "Public Policies and Saving in Developing Countries" (1991)
- "Understanding Consumption" (1992), Clarendon Press
- "The Effects of Economic and Population Growth on National Saving and Inequality", 34, pp.97~114 (1997)
- "Financing Consumption in an Aging Japan: The Roles of Foreign Capital Inflows and Immigration", 10781 (2004)
- "Determinants of the Saving Rate: An International Comparison", XII, pp.37~45
- "Why are Saving Rates so Different Across Countries?: An International Comparative Analysis", (507) (1995)
- "International Differences in Social Security and Saving", 12 (1980)
- "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows", 90, pp.314~329 (2003)
- "The Developed World's Demographic Transition-The Role of Capital Flows, Immigration and policy" (2003)
- "Capital Flows among the G-7 Nations: A Demographic Perspective", (54) (2003), Washington:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- "Population Aging in Japan: Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability", 15, pp.185~210 (2003)
- "The Variable Rate-of-Growth Effect in the Life-Cycle Saving Models" (1982)
- "Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective" (1962), Harvard University Press
- "Savings and Development", 1 (1988)
- "Demographic Changes and International Factor Mobility", w10945 (2004)
- "Demography, National Savings and International Capital Flows", 39 (1998)
- "Asian Demography and Foreign Capital Dependence: Past, Present, and Future", 5580 (1996)
- "Future Trends in Japan’s Saving Rate and the Implications thereof for Japan’s External Imbalance", 3, pp.307~330 (1992)
- "World economic Outlook" (2004), IMF
- Jappelli,Tullio, "The Aging-Saving Profile and the Life- Cycle Hypothesis" (1998), Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance
- Kang, "Why did Koreans Save so ‘Little’ and Why do They now Save so ‘Much’?" (1994)
- Kim, "Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Effects of Government Budget Deficit on the Current Account and the Exchange Rate" (2002)
- Luhrmann,Melanie, "Demographic Change, Foresight and International Capital Flows" (2003)
- McKibbin,Warwick, "Global Demographic Change and Japanese Macroeconomic Performance:the Conference on the International Collaborations Project" (2005), Tokyo, Japan
- Masson, "International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving", (51) (1995)
- Modigliani, "Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of the Cross-Section Data", pp.386~436 (1954), Rutgers University Press
- Modigliani, "The Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Savings and Intercountry Differences in Savings Ratios", pp.197~225 (1970), Clarendon Press
- Muhleinsen,Martin, "U.S. Fiscal Policies and Priorities for Long-run Sustainability" (2004)
- Sims, "Macroeconomics and Reality", 48, pp.1~48 (1980)
- Sims, "Are Forecasting Models Usable for Policy Analysis?", pp.2~16 (1986)
- Sims, "Bayesian Skepticism on Unit Root Econometrics", 12, pp.463~474 (1988)
- Sims, "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour", 59, pp.1591~1599 (1991)
- Taylor A. M, "Capital Flows to the New World as an Inter- generational Transfer" (1994)
- "The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data", 109, pp.55~81 (1994)
