통신서비스 이용행태 분석을 통한 휴대폰 교체기간 예측
Telecommunication Service Usage as Predictor of the Timing of Handset Buyers’ Replacement Purchases
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기술의 발달에 힘입어 업그레이드된 휴대폰이 매우 활발하게 출시되고 있고, 번호이동성 제도가 도입되면서 휴대폰 교체수요가 급증하고 있다. 이동통신 서비스와 휴대폰 단말기의 상호 보완관계는 매우 크다고 할 수 있는데, 고객들이 고사양의 최신 휴대폰으로 업그레이드 할 경우 다양한 서비스의 이용이 가능하여 인당서비스수익(ARPU)의 증대도 기대할 수 있다. 이와 같이 이동통신 서비스 제공자의 입장에서 자신이 보유하고 있는 서비스 이용행태 자료들을 활용하여 고객들의 신규 단말기 구매시점을 예측할 수 있다면 이는 매우 유용한 전략적 정보가 될 것이다. 즉 교체구매에 대한 소비자의 행동을 이해하여 조기수용자 층을 공략할 수도 있고 단말기 교체시기를 관리하여 서비스 관계를 강화할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 이동통신 서비스 제공자가 보유하고 있는 고객의 서비스 이용행태 자료만을 활용하여, 휴대폰 사용자가 신제품으로 교체구매를 하는데 소요되는 기간에 영향을 주는 변수들 즉 혁신적 서비스 사용, 부가서비스 사용경험, 통화서비스 사용정도, 로열티 프로그램 참여 등의 효과를 분석하고 휴대폰 교체시기를 예측하는 모형을 개발하여 실증적으로 검증하였다. 변수들의 효과에 대한 가설 검증 결과는 다양한 실무적 시사점을 제공하고 있으며, 모형의 예측타당성도 입증되었다.
Abstract
With the explosive growth of mobile products industry, tons of newer versions of products are putting on the market. From the marketer’s perspective, understanding consumers’ replacement purchases, especially the replacement timing, is essential to product planning and selling. This study presents an approach to finding out factors influencing the timing of buyers’ replacement purchases of cell phones, using duration analysis; a hazard function specification is applied to describe consumers’ replacement timing decision. Based on the data collected from a mobile telecommunication company, five categories of factors have been inspected. These are consumer’s innovative service usage, data service usage, voice service usage, participation in loyalty programs, and the demographic characteristics. The results of the study are as follows. Firstly, the positive coefficient of ‘the number of related services used’ suggests that the consumers who have more usage knowledge tend to replace faster. Secondly, customers participating in the membership service are positively associated with early replacement purchases. Lastly, younger customers(vs. older) and male(vs. female) customers turned out to replace cell phones earlier.
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