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주택시장의 과신과 가격거품

Overconfidence and Price Bubbles in the Housing Markets

신진호|황수성
한국부동산분석학회 (Korea Real Estate Analysts Association(Kreaa))|2015.03|부동산학연구 (Journal of the Korea Real Estate Analysts Association)|제21권 제1호|pp. 5-29

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키워드

주택가격BubbleOverconfidence거품과신사용자비용모형House priceUser cost model
주제분류경제학

초록

In this study we propose a new metric for overconfidence, a well-documented psychological bias, to investigate the effects of overconfidence on the Korean housing market. We find that a considerable level of overconfidence increased housing prices in Incheon, Ulsan, and in particular, Gangnam, before the global financial crisis in 2007-2008. Since the financial crisis, however, the accuracy of information on future housing prices has been underestimated. These empirical results support the view that confidence in information affects housing prices, creating price bubbles or undervaluations over time depending on levels of confidence in information accuracy. Finally, we show that our overconfidence metric is not explained by macroeconomic variables, sentiment, population growth, or the number of employees, which have been widely used to explain housing prices. The overconfidence metric captures a unique psychological bias in the housing market.

Abstract

In this study we propose a new metric for overconfidence, a well-documented psychological bias, to investigate the effects of overconfidence on the Korean housing market. We find that a considerable level of overconfidence increased housing prices in Incheon, Ulsan, and in particular, Gangnam, before the global financial crisis in 2007-2008. Since the financial crisis, however, the accuracy of information on future housing prices has been underestimated. These empirical results support the view that confidence in information affects housing prices, creating price bubbles or undervaluations over time depending on levels of confidence in information accuracy. Finally, we show that our overconfidence metric is not explained by macroeconomic variables, sentiment, population growth, or the number of employees, which have been widely used to explain housing prices. The overconfidence metric captures a unique psychological bias in the housing market.

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