韓․中․日 3國의 動學的 比較優位의 커널밀도곡선과 마르코프 전이행렬에 의한 實證分析
Empirical Analysis on Dynamics of Comparative Advantage of Korea, Japan and China Using Kernel Density Curves and Markov Transition Matrices
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본 논문은 비교우위를 측정하는 데 가장 보편적으로 이용되는 RCA지수, 즉 Balassa지수를 계산하고 RCA지수의 비모수적 성격들을 고려하여 기술적 통계, 커널밀도함수, 집중도, 그리고 마르코프 전이행렬 등의 도구들을 채택함으로써 한․중․일 3국의 비교우위의 상태와 그 동태적 특징에 대해 분석하였다. 먼저 전체산업에 대해 커널밀도곡선이나 중앙값을 이용하여 한․중․일 3국의 총체적인 부문별 비교우위분포를 비교한 결과에 의하면 평균적인 수준에 있어서는 중국이 한국이나 일본에 비해 높은 상태에 있었다. 마르코프 전이행렬 분석결과에서는 일본이 지속성이 높고 하향전이성도 낮으면서 일부 재화부문 특히 중비교우위부문의 상향전이성이 높아 다른 두 나라에 비해 중간수준 이상의 비교우위를 누리거나 비교우위가 강화될 가능성이 높은 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
*We describe the evolving patterns of Northeast Asian 3 countries’ comparative advantages using recently developed empirical procedures such as kernel density curves and Markovian transition matrices, based on the Balassa index. We first estimated, for each year in the period 1996-2005, the kernel density of the sectoral RCA index and reported that the average level of comparative advantage of China was the highest. The results from the Markovian transition matrices showed that the distribution of the indices of the Japan remained fairly stable over the period 1996～2005.
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