서울시 오피스 시장의 균형에 관한 연구

Abstract

DiPasquale-Wheaton Four Quadrant Model(4QM) describes long term equilibrium in the real estate market under the division of the real estate market into two markets: the property market and the asset market. 4QM would be utilized as a decision-making tool for Seoul office investment and management, if we prove it is still reasonable for Seoul office market. Through the Granger's casualty test under the 4QM hypothesis, it is proved that Seoul office rent level affects Seoul office price, and the latter affects the level of Seoul commercial construction. And the economic growth rate affects Seoul office rent level, and the market interest rate affects Seoul office price. As a result of proceeding impulse-response analysis and variance decomposition analysis with vector error correlation model, it proves that the impulse of Seoul office rent level has a positive effect on Seoul office price generally, and impulse of Seoul office price has a negative effect on the level of Seoul commercial construction contrary to 4QM. It also proves that the impulse of economic growth rate has a positive effect on Seoul office rent level, and the impulse of market interest rate has a negative effect on Seoul office price.