수출선간 수익률 상관관계가 방산무기 수출불안정에 미치는 영향
The Effects of Correlations among Export Earnings on Military Weapon Export Instability
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본 연구의 목적은 수출선 집중도와 더불어 수출시장으로부터의 수익들간 상관관계가 방산무기 수출불안정에 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 지를 분석하고, 이를 바탕으로 한국의 방산무기 수출에 대한 시사점을 제시하는 것이다. Massell(1964, 1970)과 Soutar(1977)를 비롯한 여러 학자들은 수출선간 수익률 상관관계가 수출불안정에 영향을 미치는 중요한 요소임에도 불구하고 이를 실증분석에서 누락시켰다. 따라서 상기 요소를 반영하여 시스템 일반화 적률법(System GMM)으로 실증분석한 결과, 수출시장으로부터의 수익들간 상관관계가 수출불안정에 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 현상은 非주요수출국에서만 확인되었다. 이를 한국 방산무기 수출에 적용하여 분석한 결과, 단기적으로는 베네스엘라, 이탈리아, 말레이시아로 수출시장을 다변화 하고, 장기적으로는 오만, 인도, 그리스, 뉴질랜드, 이집트, 폴란드, 이스라엘, 캄보디아, 포르투갈로 그 시장을 다변화해야 함을 알 수 있었다.
Abstract
The objective of this study is to investigate into whether the effects of correlations among export earnings from export partners together with export market diversification on military weapon export instability are positive, and to offer implications for Korea's weapon exports on the basis of the investigation. Many scholars including Massell (1964, 1970) and Soutar (1977) did not include the correlations as an explanatory variable in the empirical analysis although they are significant for the causes of the instability. According to the results from the System GMM analysis which includes the factor of correlations, the effects of the correlations on export instability are statistically significant and positive only for non-major exporters. Based on the results, Korea needs to diversify its markets to Venezuela, Italy, and Malaysia in the short run and to Oman, India, Greece, New Zealand, Egypt, Poland, Israel, Cambodia, and Portugal in the long run.
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