신재생에너지 보급과 경제성장의 비선형 동태패널분석
Nonlinear dynamic panel analysis of the relationship between renewable energy expansion and economic growth
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본 연구는 1990년~2014년 89개국을 대상으로 신재생에너지의 보급 확대가 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 신재생에너지 보급의 확대는 생산 비용을 증가시켜 경제 성장을 저해하는 한편 신산업 확대, 고용 창출, 자본 축적, 에너지 수입 대체 등의 효과로 경제 성장을 야기한다. Islam(1995)의 성장회귀식을 Arellano-Bond(1991) GMM으로 추정한 결과 신재생에너지 보급에 따라 신재생에너지가 경제성장에 U자 형태의 비선형적 영향을 미쳤다. 신재생에너지는 보급 초기에 전력가격 인상 등의 생산 비용 상승으로 인해 경제성장을 저해하나, 일정 수준 이상 보급된 후에는 새로운 성장 동력으로 작동한다. 추가적으로 부속서Ⅰ·비부속서Ⅰ 국가를 구분하여 분석한 결과 부속서Ⅰ 국가들에서는 U자 형태의 관계가 나타났으나 비부속서Ⅰ 국가에서는 신재생에너지 보급이 경제성장에 음의 영향을 미쳤다. 다만, 비부속서Ⅰ 국가들의 경우에도 CDM 사업을 적극적으로 주최할수록 신재생에너지 보급이 경제성장에 양의 영향을 미쳤다.
Abstract
This study examined the effect of renewable energy expansion on economic growth of 89 countries from 1990 to 2014. Renewable energy expansion may hurt economic growth by increasing the energy price. However, some studies suggest that it may boost economic growth by job creation, accumulation of capital and substitution of fossil fuel import. Based on the growth equation suggested by Islam(1995), this study applied Arellano-Bond(1991) GMM method and showed the existence of non-linear U shape between renewable energy expansion and economic growth. Although renewable energy may increase production cost in the early stage, as the renewable energy matures, it may contribute to the economic growth. Additionally, after classifying AnnexⅠ and non-AnnexⅠ countries, U shape only appeared in AnnexⅠ countries. From non-Annex Ⅰ countries, negative relationship was found. However, if non-AnnexⅠ countries host CDM projects enthusiastically, renewable energy expansion may contribute to the economic growth.
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