한국의 해외직접투자 결정요인 재고찰: 아프리카는 다른가?
Revisiting the Determinants of Korea’s Foreign Direct Investment: Is Africa Different?
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초록
본 논문은 우리나라 해외직접투자(FDI)의 결정요인을 전체 및 산업별 FDI 수준에서 확인하고, 더 나아가 새롭게 떠오르는 대륙인 아프리카의 경우 다른 지역과 비교하여 직접투자 결정요인이 다른지를 살펴본다. 이를 위해 본 논문은 중력모형을 추정하는 방법으로서 포아송 유사최우도 방법(Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Method)을 사용하여 1995~2014년간 한국의 해외직접투자 패널데이터를 분석한다. 분석결과는 첫째, 대외개방도, 사회기반시설, 그리고 인적자본은 한국의 해외직접투자 대상지 결정에 있어서 중요한 요인들이지만, 이들 간 상대적 중요성은 산업부문 및 지역에 따라 다르다. 둘째, 아프리카 대륙에 속한 국가들은 그 위치만으로도 한국으로부터 직접투자를 유치하는데 있어서 불리하다. 셋째, 부족한 사회기반시설 및 인적자본이 한-아프리카 투자협력, 특히 제조업 및 광업 투자에 있어서 중요한 제약요인이다. 이러한 분석 결과로 볼 때 한-아프리카 간 경제협력 논의에 있어 상호간 이해증진, 사회기반시설 및 인적자본의 확충 지원과 같은 아프리카 지역에 초점을 맞춘 차별화된 정책이 요구되며, 이를 위해 아프리카 지역에 대한 공적개발원조(ODA)의 적절한 활용이 필요하다.
Abstract
This paper identifies the main determinants of Korean FDI at both aggregate and sectoral level and examine whether those factors act differently in Africa. To this end, we conduct empirical analyses on FDI outflows from South Korea for 1995~2014 using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation method. The empirical results are: (a) openness, infrastructure and human capital are the main determinants of Korea’s FDI, but the dominant factors vary over different industrial sectors and regions; (b) the fact that host countries belong to the African continent is a disadvantage to attract FDI from Korean companies; (c) the lack of reliable infrastructure and human resources are key constraints to Korea-Africa investment partnerships, especially in the manufacturing and mining industries. Given the increasing request for Korea-Africa business partnership, Africa-focused and differentiated strategies are needed such as strengthening supports for infrastructure and human capital development and enhancing mutual understanding, especially through Korea’s ODA activities in Africa.
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