ODA와 해외직접투자: 중국의 대아프리카 ODA를 중심으로
Is China’s Foreign Aid a Vanguard Effect of Outward Foreign Direct Investment?
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초록
본 연구는 중국의 ODA가 해외직접투자를 위한 전략적 특징을 가지는지를 분석하였다. 특히 중국의 아프리카 국가를 대상으로 한 ODA가 해당국의 해외직접투자를 위한 전초적 효과(vanguard effect)를 가지는지를 분석하고자 하였다. 2003년부터 2017년까지 93개 국가와 43개 아프리카 국가를 대상으로 분석한 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 전체 표본 국가를 대상으로 분석한 결과에 의하면 중국의 해외직접투자를 유인하는 ODA의 영향에 대해서 통계적으로 유의미한 결과가 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 중국 ODA가 수원국의 해외직접투자를 증가시키는 요인으로 작용함을 보여준다. 둘째, 해외직접투자를 유인하는 중국의 아프리카 ODA에 대해서 통계적으로 유의미한 양(+)의 영향을 발견할 수 있었다. 즉, 아프리카 국가로 한정하여 분석한 결과에서도 중국의 ODA는 해외직접투자를 위한 전초적 성격을 가지는 것으로 분석되었다. 셋째, 중국의 해외직접투자에 영향을 미치는 투자 대상국의 제도적․정치적 변수들은 통계적 유의성을 발견할 수 없었는데, 이는 중국 해외직접투자의 특성을 반영하는 결과로 보인다. 중국 해외직접투자와 관련한 해외 원조의 전략적 성격을 규명하여 우리나라 해외직접투자의 전략을 수립하는 것이 필요하다.
Abstract
This study investigates whether China’s recent increase in foreign aid has strategic characteristics concerning outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). In particular, it focuses on analyzing whether China’s foreign aid to African countries has a vanguard effect on China’s OFDI. The results are as follows using the data from 93 countries and 43 African countries from 2003 to 2017. First, according to the results of all sample countries, statistically significant results were found on the effect of ODA to induce China's OFDI. Second, for African countries, this paper found that China's ODA has a vanguard effect on China’s OFDI. In other words, we find a statistically significant positive impact of foreign aid to induce China’s OFDI. These results show that China’s foreign aid to Africa could be a factor in increasing China’s OFDI in recipient countries. Third, institutional and political variables considered in this paper had no statistical significance to explain the characteristics of China’s OFDI. It is necessary to establish a strategy for Korea’s OFDI by identifying the strategic aspects of China’s foreign aid and OFDI.
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