FTA의 물가 안정화 효과 분석
Price Stabilizing Effects of the FTAs: The Case of Korea
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초록
본 논문은 자유무역협정(FTA) 체결의 확대가 국내 소비자물가상승률에 어떠한 영향을 주었는지계량적으로 추정해보았다. 기존 연구들이 자유무역협정의 경제적 효과 중에서 경제성장의 측면, 산업부문별 소득분배 효과, 수출․수입 관련 경쟁력 및 대외 교역 확대 효과, 또는 특정 산업이나특정 제품의 가격에 대한 효과에 관심을 기울였던 것에 비해 본 연구에서는 집계변수인 소비자물가지수에 대한 FTA 효과를 살펴보았다. 72개 세부품목별 가격에 대한 FTA 체결 전 자료를바탕으로 가격결정방정식을 추정한 후 FTA가 시행된 이후의 품목별 예측치를 가상가격으로설정하여 가중치를 적용, FTA가 없었을 경우의 물가지수를 구한 후 실제치와 비교한 결과 2004년2/4분기에서 2015년 2/4분기까지 소비자물가상승률을 연평균 0.76%p 하락시키는 효과가있었다고 추정되었다. 또한 집계변수들을 이용하여 총지수에 대한 FTA 효과 및 국제금융위기효과를 추정한 결과에서도 FTA 체결로 인한 연평균 물가상승률 하락 효과는 0.52%p, 국제금융위기로 인한 물가상승률 하락 효과는 0.47%p로 나타났다.
Abstract
This study empirically estimates how much FTAs affect domestic consumer price index. Most previous studies have been interested in the economic effects of FTAs such as the effects on economic growth, income distribution across industries, price competitiveness for international trade, trade volume, and the price of a commodity. The purpose of this study is an econometric estimation of how much the price stabilization effect occurred due to FTAs. The main results are summarized as follows. First, from an analysis which estimates the pricing equations for the prices of 72 detailed items, calculates the but-for-price after FTAs started, and constructs the hypothetical weighted price index, we find that FTAs reduce the CPI inflation rate by 0.76%p at an annual basis from the second quarter of 2004 to the second quarter of 2015. Second, the aggregate data analysis estimates the effect of FTAs on the CPI inflation rate as -0.52%p and the effect of the global financial crisis on the CPI inflation rate as -0.47%p at an annual basis over the same period.
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