가계부채의 결정요인 분석
The Determinants of the Household Indebtedness in Korea
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본고는 우리나라의 가계부채 수준이 지난 10여년 간 선진국에 필적할 만큼 높아진 원인을 한국노동패널자료(2000~2007년)를 이용한 부채 결정요인 분석을 통해 규명해 보고자 하였다. 패널프로빗모형 및 패널토빗모형 추정 결과 부채 보유확률과 평균 부채 규모는 45~54세 연령층에서 가장 큰 것으로 추정되었는데 동 연령층의 인구 비중이 지난 10여년 간 10% 수준에서 16%까지 빠르게 증가하였다. 한편 부동산가격이 가파르게 상승하기 시작한 2003년 이후 연도더미의 계수가 유의한 정(+)의 값을 가지고 단조 증가하여 부동산가격 상승 등 거시환경의 영향도 컸던 것으로 분석되었다. 자영업가구의 경우 임금근로가구에 비해 부채규모가 유의하게 크고 교육비 부담도 부채규모에 정(+)의 영향을 미쳐 이례적으로 높은 자영업자 비중과 사교육비 부담이 가계부채 증가에 일조한 것으로 보인다. 마지막으로 2003년 대비 2007년 현재 부채보유 상태의 변화 요인에 대한 다항로짓모형 추정 결과 부채의 발생 및 지속이 실물자산의 신규 취득 및 보유 지속과 밀접히 관련되는 것으로 분석되었다.
Abstract
The paper aims to locate the causes of the rapid increase in the household indebtedness in Korea during the recent 10 years using the Korea Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS). The estimation of panel probit and panel tobit models identified several key factors contributing to the trend: firstly, demographic change, especially the increase in the share of the age group of 45~54 in total population whose debt levels tend to be the highest compared to other age groups; secondly, macro factors including the rise in the price of real estates; thirdly, Korea's unique labor force structure with the share of self-employed workers, whose debt level is higher than employed workers, being two or three times higher than in developed countries. In addition, the estimation of a multinomial logit model in which the status change in debt holding between 2003 and 2007 is a dependent variable confirms that household indebtedness is closely related with the status change in real estate holding for the same period.
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