태양광 발전의 그리드 패리티 결정요인 분석: 126개국 가정용 태양광을 중심으로
Determinants of Solar Grid Parity: Based on Household PV of 126 Countries
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초록
본 연구는 그리드 패리티 관련 선행연구를 바탕으로 태양광 그리드 패리티 달성에 영향을미치는 주요 요인을 선정한 후, 2011년 126개 국가의 횡단면 분석을 통해 태양광 그리드 패리티달성을 위한 결정요인을 회귀분석하였다. 분석결과 태양광 및 신재생에너지 산업 수준, 태양광시스템의 효율성 개선, 낮은 자본조달비용, 높은 R&D 투자, 적극적인 신재생에너지 목표 설정이태양광 그리드 패리티 달성에 주요한 요인으로 나타났다. 강건성 검증을 위해 모형평균방법, 순서형 프로빗 및 GMM 모형을 활용하여 추가적인 분석을 진행한 결과, 태양광 산업, 일조량, 정책 강도, 실질 소득, 자본조달비용 등 주요 변수의 유의성 및 영향정도는 유사했다. 이상의분석을 통해 그리드 패리티 달성에 있어 자연적 요인뿐 아니라 태양광 산업 및 금융시장 발전, R&D 투자 등 거시경제적, 정책적 변수 역시 주요한 요인임을 보였다.
Abstract
Based on the previous studies on grid parity, this study selected major factors influencing the achievement of solar grid parity. We analyzed 126 countries to determine the factors for achieving solar grid parity in 2011. As a result, we concluded that the growth of solar and renewable energy industry, the efficiency of solar power system, the low cost of capital, the high R&D investment, and the aggressiveness of renewable energy goal leads to the grid parity. For robustness, we conducted additional analysis using the model average method, ordered probit and GMM, and the results were similar. This study shows that not only the solar radiation but also macroeconomic and policy variables such as solar industry growth, financial market development, renewable energy policy, and R&D investment are important factors for achieving grid parity.
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