확률밀도 가중 평균 도함수 방법을 이용한 국가 보건지출 규모 추정
Estimation of Health Expenditure Size using Density Weighted Average Derivative Method
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 논문에서는 국가의 보건지출 규모에 영향을 주는 요인에 주목하고, 해당 요인들이 보건지출에 주는 효과를 Powell 외 (1989)가 제안한 확률밀도 가중 평균 도함수 방법(density weighted average derivative method)을 이용하여 추정한다. 173개국의 자료를 이용하여 단일지수 모형을 추정한 결과, 일인당 GDP와 65세 이상 인구 비중이 국가수준의 보건지출 규모에 유의한 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 추정된 단일지수 수준에 따라 국가수준의 의료비 지출이 얼마나 증가할 것인가를 살펴본 결과, 한국은 향후 상당 기간 보건지출이 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 각 설명변수의 보건지출 규모에 대한 평균한계효과 추정 방법을 제안하고 추정한 결과, 65세 이상 인구비중의 평균 한계효과가 일인당 GDP의 평균 한계효과보다 큰 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
In this study, we focus on the demographic and economic factors that determine the size of health expenditure/GDP at country level, and estimate the effect of those factors on health expenditure size by using the density weighted average derivative method proposed by Powell et al. (1989). The estimation results of a single index model using data of 173 countries show that per capita GDP and the fraction of the elderly have significantly positive impacts on the health expenditure size. The estimation results predict that the health expenditure of Korea will increase for a considerable future period. This study also proposes a method to estimate the average marginal effect of explanatory variables on the size of health expenditure. The estimation results also show that the average marginal effect of a 1% increase in the proportion of the elderly on health expenditure size is more than that of a 1% increase in per capita GDP.
참고문헌 (23)
- 홍석철, "인구고령화와 의료비 지출의 변화, 한국의 사회동향", 한국의 사회동향, pp.202~209 (2014)
- Baltagi, B., "Health Care Expenditure and Income in the OECD Reconsidered : Evidence from Panel Data", Economic Modelling, 27, pp.804~811 (2010)
- Chen, J., "Estimation in Partially Linear Single-Index Panel Models with Fixed Effects", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 31(3), pp.315~330 (2011)
- Hansen, P., "The determinants of health care expenditure : A cointegration approach", Journal of Health Economics, 15, pp.127~137 (1996)
- Hardle, W., "How Sensitive are Average Derivatives?", Journal of Econometrics, 58, pp.31~48 (1993)
- Hartwig, J., "Robust Determinants of Health Care Expenditure Growth", Applied Economics, 46, pp.4455~4474 (2014)
- Horowitz, J. L., "Semi-parametric and Nonparametric Methods in Econometrics" (2009), Springer
- Horowitz, J. L., "Direct Semiparametric Estimation of Single-Index Models with Discrete Covariates", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, pp.1632~1640 (1996)
- Ichimura, H., "Semiparametric least squares(SLS)and weighted SLS estimation of single index models", Journal of Econometrics, 58, pp.71~120 (1993)
- Jeong, J. Y., "A Study on Factors Affecting the Increase of Health Care Expenditure-among OECD countries", Journal of the Institute of Health and Environmental Science, 5, pp.113~124 (1995)
- Klein, R., "An Efficient Semiparametric Estimator or Binary Response Models", Econometrica, 61(2), pp.387~421 (1993)
- Lago-Penas, S., "On the Relationship between GDP and Health Care Expenditure : A new look", Economic Modelling, 32, pp.124~129 (2013)
- Longman, P., "Born to Pay : the new politics of aging in America" (1987), Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
- Madsen, J., "Ageing may have limited impact on future costs of primary care providers", Scandinavian Journal of Primary Care, 20(3), pp.169~173 (2002)
- Newey, W. K., "Semiparametric Estimation of Selection Models : Some Empirical Results", American Economic Review, 80(2), pp.324~328 (1990)
- OECD, "Aging population: the social policy implications" (1988), OECD Publishing
- Polder, J. J., "Health care costs in the last year of life-The Dutch experience", Social Science & Medicine, 63(7), pp.1720~1731 (2006)
- Powell, J. L., "Semiparametric Estimation of Index Coefficients", Econometrica, 57, pp.1403~1430 (1989)
- Powell, J. L., "Optimal bandwidth choice for density-weighted averages", Journal of Econometrics, 75, pp.291~316 (1996)
- Scitovsky, A. A., "“The High Cost of Dying”: What Do the Data Show?", Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly Health and Society, 62, pp.591~608 (1984)
- The determinants of health expenditure:A Country-Level Panel Data Analysis, "Xu, K.", World Health Organization, ~ (2011)
- Yang, Z., "Longevity and health care expenditures: the real reasons older people spend more", Journals of Gerontology, Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, 58(1), pp.S2~S10 (2003)
- Yatchew, A., "Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Equivalence Scales with Evidence from South Africa", Journals of Business and Economic Statistics, 21(2), pp.247~257 (2003)