COVID-19 대응 사회적거리두기 정책 도입의 산업별 취업자 변화 효과
An empirical analysis of the effect of social distancing policy on employment variation by industry against COVID-19 pandemic
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본 연구는 COVID-19 확산에 대응한 사회적거리두기 정책 도입으로 유발되는 산업별 취업자 변화를 2017년1월~2021년1월 산업별 고용 변화 및 단계별 사회적거리두기 정책을 활용하여 COVID-19 확산 시기의 고용 변화를 실증적으로 분석하는 것을 연구의 목적으로 한다. 또한, 1차 차분모형, 이중 및 삼중차분모형을 활용하여 사회적거리두기 단계별 정책 적용에 따른 시점‧지역‧산업별 취업자 감소 특성을 파악하였다. 더불어, 단계별 사회적거리두기 정책에 따른 산업별 취업자 변화 외에 지역의 인구 및 산업 물가 증가로 인한 산업별 취업자 수요 증가에도 불구하고 취업자수가 감소하는 특성을 파악하였다. 사회적거리두기 1단계 정책 도입 이후 제조업, 건설업, 도소매숙박음식업 취업자수는 감소하였으며, 사회적거리두기의 2.5단계 강화로 건설업, 도소매숙박음식업의 취업자는 보다 감소하였다. 특히, 사회적거리두기 정책 도입과 시점을 고려할 경우 제조업과 공공서비스업의 취업자가 감소하였다. 또한, 광역시 및 수도권이 광역도 및 비수도권에 비해 사업별 취업자가 감소하여 사회적거리두기 정책 도입으로 지역별 취업자변화 차이가 확인되었다. 더불어, 사회적거리두기 2.5단계 격상에 따라 광역시는 건설업, 도소매숙박음식업, 공공서비스업의 취업자가 감소하였으며, 수도권은 농림업, 건설업, 도소매숙박업의 취업자가 감소하였다. 특히, COVID-19 확산으로 인한 사회적거리두기 정책 도입은 시점 및 지역별 영향 외에 취업자 수요가 증가하는 지역여건에도 불구하고 산업별 취업자는 감소하였다.
Abstract
The purpose of study is to empirically analyze changes in employment in industry by applying social distancing policy due to spread of COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, in order to reflect the declining characteristics of the number of employment of industry by time and region, this study used the 1st difference model (FDM), difference in difference model (DiD), and triple difference models (DDD) to identify the time point according to the application of policies for each level of social distancing and the change of the employment by region. Also, in addition to the change of employment by industry due to the social distancing policies, this study identified the characteristics of a decrease in the number of employment despite the increase in the demand for employment by industry due to the increase in local population and industrial prices. After level-1 social distancing policy, the number of employment by industry decreased in the manufacturing, construction, and wholesale/lodging/food industries. Also, as the social distancing was upgraded to level-2.5, the number of employment of the construction and wholesale/lodging/food industries decreased. In addition, as a result of considering the change of employment by region due to the social distancing policy, regional differences were confirmed as the number of employment by industry decreased in metropolitan city and Seoul metropolitan area. Also, the number of employment of the construction, wholesale/lodging/food, and public service industry in metropolitan city decreased according to the level-2.5 social distancing, and the number of employment in agriculture/forestry, construction, wholesale/lodging/food industries decreased in the Seoul metropolitan area. In particular, the introduction of social distancing policies due to the spread of COVID-19 showed a decrease in the number of employment by industry, despite regional conditions that increase the demand for employment.
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