우리나라 가계의 동태적 부채보유 행태에 대한 분석
An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Behaviors for Owing Household Debt in Korea
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빠르게 증가하고 있는 우리나라의 가계부채를 분석한 결과, 첫째 금기(今期)의 가계부채 보유결정에 있어 전년도 가계부채 보유 수준은 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 소득 등 가계부채를 결정하는 다양한 경제·사회적 요인들 이외에도 가계부채의 전년도 수준은 금기(今期) 가계부채 수준에 주요한 영향을 미치는 변수로 작용하는 것으로 나타났다. 동 분석결과는 개별 가계의 부채 수준이 지속적으로 높아지는 것은 아니지만 특정 수준에 이를 때까지 지속성을 갖고 있음을 시사한다. 둘째, 부채의 조정속도를 기간에 따라 분석한 결과, 시기에 따라 상이하며, 금융위기 직전 부채의 조정속도가 상대적으로 빨라져 전반적인 부채의 증가 속도가 빠르게 이루어졌으나, 이후 2014년까지 가계부채 규제 등으로 속도가 완화된 것으로 보인다. 셋째, 소득계층별로 부채의 조정속도를 분석한 결과, 중․고소득층을 중심으로 부채의 조정속도가 빠른 것으로 추정되었다. 이러한 결과를 종합해 볼 때 최근 빠르게 증가하고 있는 가계부채는 중·고소득계층을 중심으로 한 가계부채 보유의 동태적인 속성 변화와 밀접한 관련이 있는 것으로 보인다.
Abstract
Since the financial crisis of 2007-2009, household debts have been deleveraged in major developed countries. However, there are growing concerns about a persistent increase in Korea's household debt. In this respect, there have been a number of studies that address household debt, but most of them using static analyses have limitations on better understanding problems with household debt, especially in Korea. In this context, we investigate the dynamics of household debt using data from Korean Labor and Income Panel Study. In particular, we examine whether individual households have optimal target levels for their debts, associated with a simple partial adjustment model. In this paper, we find that their decisions on how much debt households would have in the current period depend largely on the level of household debts in the previous period. This finding implies a consistent rise in household debts at its lower level. On the other hand, we find that the adjustment speed of household debts was high, relative to that after the financial crisis. Moreover, the adjustment speeds of household debts in higher income classes are high, relative to those in lower income classes, which means that in recent years, a rapid increase in Korea's aggregate household debt may be closely related to higher adjustment speeds in high income classes.
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