서울시 숙박시설의 객실수급 변화양상 및 전망 분석
Analysis on the Change Pattern and Forecasting of Supply-Demand for Lodging Rooms in Seoul
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As the fastest growing tourists visiting Korea, there’s been much controversy over the adequacy of supply-demand for lodging rooms in the fields of the tourism industry. The purpose of this paper is to examine historical change pattern and predict the long-term supply-demand for lodging rooms in Seoul. The quantitative method is based on McIntosh & Goeldner’s(1995) model, using an empirical dataset with the hotel and other accommodations from 2007 to 2016. The primary results of research are briefly summarized as follows; First, change pattern of lodging rooms are gradually imbalanced between supply-demand in Seoul, after effects on special laws enforcement(2012). Second, the outlook of supply-demand for lodging rooms was quite different by alternative simulations. According to alt 1(min) with the restricted only hotel, supply-demand for rooms are well balanced in the next three years. But at the end of 2021, supply(75K) can’t meet rising demand(80K) that additional expansion(5K) will be needed to reach an equilibrium. Consequently, it means that most of the hotel rooms will have already full at the same time. In case of alt 2(max), supported various lodging types such as guesthouse, hostel, serviced residence, supply(98K) will continue to outpace demand(80K) until 2021. The gap between supply-demand for lodging room is roughly 17K, which has sufficient to meet the high demand because of the newly built project(16K). This situation facing over-supply can cause severe damage to sales performance in operation(e.g. drop in OCC, ADR level, and revenue loss. Finally, these findings imply that adjusting or total management of supply-demand is very important to seek market stability in the future. Also it can provide a useful solution regarding mismatch problem between supply-demand as well as development the systematic forecasting model for lodging market participants(policy maker, investor, owner, operator, user).
Abstract
As the fastest growing tourists visiting Korea, there’s been much controversy over the adequacy of supply-demand for lodging rooms in the fields of the tourism industry. The purpose of this paper is to examine historical change pattern and predict the long-term supply-demand for lodging rooms in Seoul. The quantitative method is based on McIntosh & Goeldner’s(1995) model, using an empirical dataset with the hotel and other accommodations from 2007 to 2016. The primary results of research are briefly summarized as follows; First, change pattern of lodging rooms are gradually imbalanced between supply-demand in Seoul, after effects on special laws enforcement(2012). Second, the outlook of supply-demand for lodging rooms was quite different by alternative simulations. According to alt 1(min) with the restricted only hotel, supply-demand for rooms are well balanced in the next three years. But at the end of 2021, supply(75K) can’t meet rising demand(80K) that additional expansion(5K) will be needed to reach an equilibrium. Consequently, it means that most of the hotel rooms will have already full at the same time. In case of alt 2(max), supported various lodging types such as guesthouse, hostel, serviced residence, supply(98K) will continue to outpace demand(80K) until 2021. The gap between supply-demand for lodging room is roughly 17K, which has sufficient to meet the high demand because of the newly built project(16K). This situation facing over-supply can cause severe damage to sales performance in operation(e.g. drop in OCC, ADR level, and revenue loss. Finally, these findings imply that adjusting or total management of supply-demand is very important to seek market stability in the future. Also it can provide a useful solution regarding mismatch problem between supply-demand as well as development the systematic forecasting model for lodging market participants(policy maker, investor, owner, operator, user).
참고문헌 (51)
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