Rethinking the Sunshine Promise: Structural Impediments to South Korea’s Positive Inducement Policies for the North Korean Problem
0
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test in January 2016. It seemed to nullify Sunshine Policy, the policy idea that South Korea’s economic assistance can induce North Korea’s post-communist reform and opening, and, in turn, promote inter-Korean peace. The primary purpose of this article is to identify the structural causes of the failure of these inducement policies, while seeking potential remedies. The argument is that South Korean assistance policies have not managed to effectively accomplish the intended outcomes because of the patrimonial domination of North Korean rent-seeking elites and the under-provision of policy harmonization among engaged donors. First, the patrimonial domination, substantially free of institutions of accountability, matters. Second, the lack of international harmonization among engaged donors’ policy goals decreases aid effectiveness, which seems to worsen the problem of politicized aid. In the event that North Korea changes its policy directions to meet the international demands of denuclearization, this article suggests the institutionalization of a multinational consortium to promote policy harmonization among engaged donors and to lower the structural impediments raised by the North Korean ancien régime as well.
Abstract
North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test in January 2016. It seemed to nullify Sunshine Policy, the policy idea that South Korea’s economic assistance can induce North Korea’s post-communist reform and opening, and, in turn, promote inter-Korean peace. The primary purpose of this article is to identify the structural causes of the failure of these inducement policies, while seeking potential remedies. The argument is that South Korean assistance policies have not managed to effectively accomplish the intended outcomes because of the patrimonial domination of North Korean rent-seeking elites and the under-provision of policy harmonization among engaged donors. First, the patrimonial domination, substantially free of institutions of accountability, matters. Second, the lack of international harmonization among engaged donors’ policy goals decreases aid effectiveness, which seems to worsen the problem of politicized aid. In the event that North Korea changes its policy directions to meet the international demands of denuclearization, this article suggests the institutionalization of a multinational consortium to promote policy harmonization among engaged donors and to lower the structural impediments raised by the North Korean ancien régime as well.
참고문헌 (51)
- Andrew S. Natsios, "The Great North Korean Famine: Famine, Politics, and Foreign Policy" (2001), United States Institute of Peace Press
- Marcus Noland, "Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures", Economic Development and Cultural Change, 49(4), pp.741~767 (2001)
- Foreign Assistance to North Korea, "Mark E. Manyin", CRS, 1~4, pp.CRS Report for Congress RL31785 (2005)
- "North Korea Says It Has Detonated Its First Hydrogen Bomb" (2016)[URL]
- "Government Statement regarding the Complete Shutdown of the Kaeseong Industrial Complex" (2016)[URL]
- "Address to the National Assembly" (2016)[URL]
- ROK Ministry of Unification, "2006 Unification White Paper", pp.15~30 (2006), Tahye Media
- Michael Bratton, "Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective", pp.61~68 (1997), Cambridge University Press
- S. N. Eisenstadt, "Traditional Patrimonialism and Modern Neo-Patrimonialism" (1973), Sage
- OECD, "Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness: Ownership, Harmonization, Alignment, Result, and Mutual Accountability", OECD, ~ (2005)
- Aid Instrument in Fragile States, "Nicholas Leader", UK Department for International Development, 15~, pp.Poverty Reduction in Difficult Environments (PRDE) Working Paper, no. 5 (2005)
- Aid Effectiveness and the Millennium Development Goals, "Steven Radelet", Center for Global Development, 16~19, pp.Center for Global Development Working Paper, no. 39 (2004)
- Working for Development in Difficult Partnerships, In Development Cooperation Report 2002: Efforts and Policies of the Members of the Development Assistance Committee, "OECD", OECD Publishing, ~ (2003)
- Douglass C. North, "Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance" (1990), Cambridge University Press
- Anders Aslund, "How Capitalism Was Built: The Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia", pp.37~38 (2007), Cambridge University Press
- Study on the North Korean Social Control Organizations, "Hyun-joon Jeon", Korea Institute of National Unification, 51~63 (2003)
- "The Hidden Gulag: Exposing North Korea’s Prison Camps" (2003)[URL]
- Chong-Sik Lee, "Korean Workers’ Party: A Short History" (1978), Hoover Institution Press
- Dae-Sook Suh, "Kim Il Sung: The North Korean Leader" (1988), Columbia University Press
- Charles K. Armstrong, "The North Korean Revolution, 1945-1950" (2003), Cornell University Press
- Andrei Lankov, "From Stalin to Kim Il Sung: The Formation of North Korea, 1945-1960" (2002), Rutgers University Press
- Balazs Szalontai, "Kim Il Sung in the Khrushchev Era: Soviet-DPRK Relations and the Roots of North Korean Despotism, 1953-1964" (2005), Stanford University Press
- Andrei Lankov, "Crisis in North Korea: The Failure of De-Stalinization, 1956" (2005), University of Hawai’i Press
- Adrian Buzo, "The Guerilla Dynasty: Politics and Leadership in North Korea" (1999), Westview Press
- Robert A. Scalapino, "Communism in Korea", pp.752~756 (1972), University of California Press
- Ch’ang Ha Kim, "Immortal Juche Idea", pp.199~201 (1985), Social Science Press
- Marcus Noland, "Worst of the Worst: Dealing with Repressive and Rogue Nations", pp.2007, World Peace Foundation
- Edward P. Reed, "Unlikely Partners in the Quest for Juche: Humanitarian Agencies in North Korea", paper presented at the conference “Towards a Peaceful Resolution with North Korea: Crafting a New International Engagement Framework” hosted by American Enterprise Institute (2004)
- Andrei Lankov, "North Korean Refugees in Northeast China", Asian Survey, 44(46), pp.871~ (2004)
- Samuel S. Kim, "The Two Koreas and the United States: Issues of Peace, Society, and Economic Cooperation", pp.46~ (2000), East Gate Books
- Paul Collier, "The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It", pp.108~123 (2007), Oxford University Press
- Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through", Foreign Affairs, 76(4), pp.105~118 (1997)
- Nicholas Eberstadt, "Reform, Muddling Through, or Collapse", NBR Analysis, 4(3) (1993)
- Analysis and Assessment of the North Korean Law on the Planning of People’s Economy, "Sung Ho Je", Korea Institute of National Unification, ~ (1999)
- Kim Jong Il, "Selected Works, Vol. 14", pp.454~ (2000), Korean Workers’ Party Press
- Benjamin Habib, "North Korea’s Parallel Economies: Systemic Disaggregation Following the Soviet Collapse", Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 44(2), pp.149~159 (2011)
- Sung-Il Hyun, "North Korean National Strategies and Power Elites: Cadre Policies", pp.275~358 (2007), Sunin
- Young Tai Jeung, "North Korea’s Armament Industry and the Buildup of the Biochemical Warfare Capability", East Asian Review, 7(2), pp.40~51 (1995)
- Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "North Korea: North Korea’s Deadly Industries Revealed", Jane’s Defence Weekly, 54~57 (1997)
- Vasily V. Mikheev, "Reforms of the North Korean Economy: Requirements, Plans, and Hopes", Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 5(1) (1993)
- Young-sun Lee, "New International Engagement Framework for North Korea?: Contending Perspectives" (2004), Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
- Ui Kak Hwang, "Studies on Modern North Korean Economy: Theory and Practice, Forum on North Korean Economy" (2005), Orem
- Kim Jong Il, "Thanks You Father Kim Il Sung: Eyewitness Accounts of Severe Violations of Freedom of Thought, Conscience, and Religion in North Korea", pp.78~ (2005), USCIRF
- "U.N. panel freezes assets of N. Korean firms" (2009)[URL]
- Joo Hyun Kim, "Prospects for Business Investment in North Korea: Reality of North Korean Economy and Tasks", paper presented at the Fourth Free Enterprise Forum (2001)
- Alberto Alesina, "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?", Journal of Economic Growth, 5(1), pp.33~63 (2000)
- Myeong-Hae Choi, "North Korea’s Second Nuclear Test and China’s Reponses", Paper presented at the 15th KPI Forum hosted by Korea Peace Institute (2009)
- David Shambaugh, "China and the Korean Peninsula: Playing for the Long Term", Washington Quarterly, 26(2), pp.43~56 (2003)
- Scott Snyder, "China’s Rise and the Two Koreas: Politics, Economics, and Security", pp.114~115 (2009), Lynne Rienner
- "North Korea: Unilateral and Multilateral Economic Sanctions and U.S. Department of Treasury Actions 1955-April 2009" (2009)[URL]
- Helen V. Miller, "Delegation and Agency in International Organizations", pp.107~139 (2006), Cambridge University Press