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국내외 주요 산불위험지수의 국내 적용성 평가: 태백산맥 동쪽 지역을 대상으로

Evaluation of the Applicability of Major Domestic and International Forest fire indices: A Case Study in the Eastern Region of the Taebaek Mountain Range

유철상|마정혁
한국습지학회 (Korean Wetlands Society)|2024.08|한국습지학회지 (Journal of Wetlands Researh)|제26권 제3호|pp. 204-218|DOI 10.17663/JWR.2024.26.3.204

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태백산맥산불산불위험지수Forest fire동해안 지역Forest fire indexEast coast regionTaebaek mountain range
주제분류기타자연과학

초록

본 연구에서는 국내외 산불위험지수들의 국내 적용성에 대해 평가하였다. 이를 위해, 먼저, 전 세계적으로 많이 사용되는 산불위험지수들을 소개하고 그 계산 과정을 비교하였다. 이후 실제 국내 산불 발생 건수의 경년 변동 및 계절적변동 경향을 각 산불위험지수의 적용 결과와 비교하였다. 마지막으로, 향후 국내에 적용 가능한 지수들을 선정하고그 적용성을 높일 수 있는 보완 방향을 제시하였다. 고려한 산불위험지수는 미국에서 개발된 MI, KBDI, FFWI, mFFWI, 러시아에서 개발된 NI, ZhI, MNI, 그리고 국내에서 개발된 DWI 등이다. 본 연구의 대상지역으로 동해안지역을 선정하였으며, 산불 발생 건수는 산림청에서 제공하는 산림통계연보를 참고하였다. 연구결과 대부분의 산불위험지수는 경년변동 정도가 크지 않아 실제 산불 발생 건수를 잘 나타내지는 못하는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 대부분의 산불위험지수가 월 변동은 잘 나타내는 것으로 나타났다. 산불위험지수와 실제 산불 발생 건수의 상관분석 결과최종적으로 동해안 지역에 적합한 지수로 mFFWI, MI, ZhI, DWI 등을 선정하였다. 그러나 이들 지수는 현재 상태로국내 산불 발생을 적절히 나타낸다고 판단하기는 어려우며 추가의 보완이 필요한 것으로 판단되었다. 지수별로 보완되어야 할 부분도 각각 다르며, 따라서 이들에 대한 평가도 보완이 수행된 이후에야 가능할 것으로 보인다.

Abstract

In this study, we evaluate the applicability of domestic and international forest fire indices in Korea. To accomplish this objective, we first compare the structures of widely-used forest fire indices worldwide. Then, the application results of these forest fire indices are evaluated by comparing them with the annual and seasonal variations in actual forest fire occurrences in Korea. Finally, we select indices suitable for domestic application and propose directions to improve their appropriate applicabilities. The considered forest fire indices include MI, KBDI, FFWI, and mFFWI developed in the United States, NI, ZhI, and MNI developed in Russia, and DWI developed in Korea. This study considers the East Coast region as a study area, and the number of forest fire occurrences is referenced from the forestry statistics yearbook provided by the Korea Forest Service. As results, first, most forest fire indices do not adequately reproduce the actual annual forest fire occurrences as its variation is so small. However, most indices are found to effectively represent the monthly variations. Based on the correlation analysis between forest fire indices and actual forest fire occurrences, mFFWI, MI, ZhI, and DWI are selected as suitable indices for the East Coast region. However, these indices are still not satisfactory to adequately represent the forest fire occurrences in Korea, suggesting the need for further improvements. Each index has its own different aspects to be improved and, therefore, evaluation of these indices may be available only after further improvements are completed.

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