기후변화에 따른 산불 조심 기간의 재설정에 관한 연구
Readjustment of Forest Fire Danger Season according to Climate Change
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초록
기후변화에 의해 전 세계적으로 고온 건조한 기상으로 인해 산불 연료의 상태가 발화하기 쉬운 조건으로유지됨에 따라 세계 각국에서는 산불 시즌을 정량적으로 산정하고 평가하는 연구가 활발히 이루어지고있다. 국내에서도 산불 발생의 위험이 높은 봄철과 가을철에 산불 조심 기간을 설정하여 산불 관리를하고 있다. 하지만 기후변화로 인해 산불 조심 기간 외의 기간에도 산불의 발생이 빈번하므로 기존의산불 조심 기간에 대한 재조정이 요구된다. 본 연구 결과에 의하면, 과거 30년간의 산불 발생 빈도분석을 통해 전체 산불 발생의 비율이 산불 조심 기간보다 산불 조심 기간 외의 기간에 발생되는 산불비율이 증가하고 있고, 산불 기상지수(FWI)의 변화 분석에서도 마찬가지로 2000년 이전에는 10.6에서2000년 이후에는 13.4로 증가하였다. 이러한 산불 위험성은 기후변화 시나리오(HAPPI) 결과에서도 산불조심 기간(봄철 3일, 가을철 2주)이 확장되고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 그러므로 국내의 산불 조심 기간을현재 및 미래 예측 분석을 통해 산불 발생 위험성이 증가되고 있으므로 기간 조정을 통한 연장 및확대가 요구된다.
Abstract
As a consequence of the globally pervasive high-temperature and drought conditions induced by climate change. Worldwide, efforts are underway to quantitatively assess and evaluate wildfire seasons. In South Korea, despite the strategic designation of precautionary intervals during peak-risk seasons(spring and autumn), the escalating incidence of wildfires beyond these delineated periods necessitates a paradigm shift. According to this study, the past 30 years' wildfire occurrence frequency reveals an escalating ratio of wildfires during non-precautionary periods compared to designated periods. Concurrently, an examination of the variations in the Fire Weather Index(FWI) demonstrates an increase from 10.6 pre-2000 to 13.4 post-2000. The empirical evidence is substantiated by climate change scenario outcomes(HAPPI), indicating an expansion of the wildfire precautionary periods(3 days in spring and 2 weeks in autumn). Consequently, considering the mounting wildfire risk as evidenced by current and future predictive analyses, an imperative for an extension and augmentation of the wildfire precautionary periods in South Korea is underscored.
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