A Scenario for South Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Development Rooted between the ROK-US Alliance and Independent National Defense: The Prologue Begins with an Assassination

Abstract

Purpose: This study assumes that a series of events—including the North Korean regime's continued nuclear weapons development amidst uncertainty, the strengthening of Russian-North Korean military cooperation fol-lowing the Russo-Ukrainian War, US President Trump's approval of South Korea's nuclear-powered submarines (NSS) around the Gyeongju APEC Summit, and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's suggestion of military interven-tion in the event of a Taiwanese emergency—are all unfolding within the macroeconomic framework of US-China strategic competition. These shifting international political dynamics are rapidly destabilizing the security envi-ronment in Northeast Asia, highlighting the possibility of all-out war and the resurgence of past assassinations as real threats. By analyzing key assassination incidents in Northeast Asia, this study aims to reexamine the current security crisis within its historical and structural context and to forecast the future security order in Northeast Asia amidst the US-China conflict. Method: This study is an English-language extension of a paper published in Korean. Based on the political background of terrorism and assassination cases that occurred in Korea in the original Korean paper, it addition-ally discussed the scenario of Korea's nuclear development. Results: Terrorism tends to be perceived as a struggle against an enemy nation and enjoys public support. Therefore, assassination terrorism follows the following process: ➀ It begins with the psychological motivation that the target of the assassination is responsible for a certain situation, and ➁ If the target is eliminated, ➂ the situation will no longer exist. ➃ Once this motivation is confirmed, the process of carrying out the assassination mission is put into action. Conclusion: This study analyzed assassination cases against the political backdrop of Northeast Asia and de-veloped the relationship between security failures and national security. ➀ Domestic political turmoil and foreign policy failures lead to the assassination of national leaders. ➁ Such assassinations are attempted with the inten-tion of regime change. ➂ Such assassinations can escalate into all-out war. ➃ War breaks out when the balance of military power in neighboring countries is disrupted, and assassination attempts occur before such events.